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Your analysis is essential for helping make sense out of some of the numbers we're seeing thrown about for VE.

Have you seen the following analysis? I would be curious to hear if you have any thoughts concerning the following statistical analysis:


W: There are many details of that analysis that I disagree with, starting with the fact that no distinction is made between experimental data from randomized controlled trials and observational data which is not randomized and not controlled. You simply can't use the same methods to analyze different types of data.

I do agree with the widespread misinterpretation of 95% efficacy. First, it does not mean 95% of the vaccinated people are protected. The 6-month cumulative case rate in the trials for the placebo group is below 8 percent so at least 92 percent of non-vaccinated people are not infected in that period of time. It is a relative ratio of case rates.

Second and more important is that the 95% probability is *CONDITIONAL* on the vaccinated person not getting sick before reaching 14 days after 2nd dose! (In real world studies, quite some people got sick before getting to that stage!)


Kaiser: Thank you for taking a look at this and providing your perspective. One of the challenges with all of this is understanding what sort of lenses are appropriate to use and what aren't in a sea of data.

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Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
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