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Harlan

The last couple of paragraphs here I think you're confusing two different things. The deaths-per-million from the pandemic are *per day*, while from the vaccine are *per vaccination*. Those are totally different. Over the course of the last year-plus, everyone has been susceptible to that per-day rate 400 times. Overall, the death rate from the pandemic is I think more like 300 per million (just infected people the case-fatality rate is, what, 2000 per million?), while the death rate from the vaccine is, as I understand your analysis, no more than 7 per million.

I really think you should retract or revise this... It's quite misleading...

Kaiser

Harlan: To make it more of a fair comparison, we'd have to turn the 7 per million into per day. At the time of the study, vaccinations have only started for a couple of months or so, and initially very few were exposed. So that lowers the number but not by much. Besides, we are missing exposure data on Covid-19. Each injection is a certain exposure to the vaccine while it is not strictly true that every person is exposed to coronavirus every day. So I decided to scrap that comparison.

The basic point is that in many countries around the world, because the deaths they've seen from Covid-19 are low, they don't perceive the risk of Covid-19 the way the U.S. does.

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Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
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