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Michael Droy

Good stuff.
It would seem natural to assume that there is a seasonal effect and/or an inherent rush to peak and collapse curve that would explain much of the drop off without reference to vaccines.
Also many countries now seem to be suffering extended long waves over winter 20/21, while others has a much shorter wave. This seems to be linked with having a smaller winter/spring 2020 wave (which can only reasonably be interpolated from deaths as infections were not measured well then).

And at heart super-spreader effects make any modelling complicated.

Kaiser

MD: The effects may also differ by country or country characteristics. So the vaccine effect might be higher in some places and lower in others. Same with lockdowns e.g. depending on compliance and other factors.

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