« What to think about vaccines today, including why vaccines protect you against blood clots | Main | U.S. regulators asleep at the wheel »

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

MVE

There are many nuanced reasons to dismiss this "analysis" but the headline to me is the claim that across the board the ratio has been 3 undetected : 1 detected case.

There are actual estimates of these numbers, and if whoever slapped together this Excel sheet was interested in reality they would have used them. E.g. https://covidestim.org/

Michael Droy

"If we believe the calculation, then the U.S. has sacrificed over half a million of our fellow citizens in the name of herd immunity. Is this the lesson of the Covid-19 pandemic?"
That is the dishonest way of describing it.
An honest assessment would be to estimate the life years lost.
Probably a couple of million.
Whereas how many extra life years are created by each year of normal economic progress and improved health services? 10 years increase Life expectancy in 60 years implies about 60 million years of life years gained per year, each and every year.
That is the basic QALY calculation that needs to put Covid deaths into context. And very crude numbers work very well for that.

Kaiser

MVE: I missed the column where they multiplied cases by 4 so yes they are using the assumption that only 25% of infections are detected. Given that we don't do random testing, how is that factor of 4 derived?

Now, the model used by that website is filled with assumptions as well, and they admit "As diagnostic guidelines loosen and testing availability improves, we expect to see more cases, though the underlying incidence of disease may or may not have changed. Lags in diagnosis, diagnostic delays, and changing diagnostic guidelines will all impact case reports, and bias estimates of Rt." Magically, they claim all these complications disappear when they look at new infections per day. I have no idea what they are talking about.

It's very sad to look at the cumulative infection curves at that site. It illustrates exactly my point about sacrificing lives.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name is required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
Visit my website. Follow my Twitter. See my articles at Daily Beast, 538, HBR, Wired.

See my Youtube and Flickr.

Search3

  • only in Big Data
Numbers Rule Your World:
Amazon - Barnes&Noble

Numbersense:
Amazon - Barnes&Noble

Junk Charts Blog



Link to junkcharts

Graphics design by Amanda Lee

Next Events

Jan: 10 NYPL Data Science Careers Talk, New York, NY

Past Events

Aug: 15 NYPL Analytics Resume Review Workshop, New York, NY

Apr: 2 Data Visualization Seminar, Pasadena, CA

Mar: 30 ASA DataFest, New York, NY

See more here

Principal Analytics Prep



Link to Principal Analytics Prep

Community