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Great analysis. I have been using brute force to try and work out the at risk numbers that match their detailed tables in appendix and just gave up. Can you tell with your experience how sample sizes might differ in their subgroups?

Note too that they managed to prematch 260k of controls which leaves 336 for rolling matching 90 of which were censored and rematched from pool on rematching.

Some macro issues.

Since older age groups were vaccinated first one might expect longer time windows to be older and more difficult to rematch. Not sure how they managed all this.

There was a lockdown on Jan 8th.

I think they should include tesing data and suspect that a confounding issue is that vaccinated individuals are less likely to test.

This is somewhat backed up by this article.


This paper attempts to address the issues related to the context of the study and does provide some insight. Not sure it convinces


Good post on a good issue because many studies "benchmark"against it probably due to sample size.



Gary: The challenge of real-world studies is always the unending well of potential biases. There is direct evidence about vaccinated people less likely to test after vaccination in the Mayo Clinic paper. The only biases that these studies so far adjusts for are factors related to the individuals, demographics and clinical information - but you're right that they do not take into account environmental factors.

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