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Michael Droy

Well sure. But we don't just have statistics to work with. We have logic and science too.
Given the following claims:
1. lockdown makes a big difference,
2. masks make a big difference
3. Vaccines make a big difference to individuals
4. presence of anti-bodies (from vaccines or pat exposure) makes a big difference to individuals
5. Seasonal effects are very strong on R
6. Anti-body presence in >50% of pop makes a big difference to R
7. Immunity other than through anti-body presence is a thing

I'm pretty confident there is strong statistical evidence for 3, 4 & 5 already. And that no scientist is going to argue with 6.
Whereas 1 & 2 are still being discussed by scientists and statisticians, and 7 is being deliberately ignored by all but the Great Barrington group.

You might be looking for exact assessments on the effects of different factors. But most people, and particularly anyone advising on public policy are not.
3, 4, 5 & 6 are undeniable, and explain the collapse in UK Covid, and non-collapse in countries which had a mild first wave.
For most of that we have everything we need to know

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Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
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