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Ken

It is all rather messy. I can see that Israel may see benefit in a 50% reduction in transmission quickly, but there are some worrying assumptions. The 52% is presumably obtained by modelling. Infections in vaccinated people may well be from before vaccination or before the vaccine became fully effective. I assume that there infectious disease modellers are looking at that.

I expect that Israel is going to do the second vaccination but 2 months after the first. Presumably Pfizer has looked at that in their early phase trials and it ends up with similar results as 2 or 3 weeks apart. If it doesn't, then they will have problems. A 50% vaccine efficiency is probably sufficient for the original strain, with some mild restrictions and testing and contact tracing, but is not likely to be effective for the new strain. This assumes that close to 100% of the population are vaccinated.

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