New year, more numbersense

Happy New Year. It's ever more important to use your numbersense when you hear data about the pandemic.

<1> The current count of "vaccinations" of Pfizer or Moderna - in the U.S., Israel, and anywhere else - is zero. No one is "vaccinated" until s/he receives the second shot. (Well, those who got two shots in the vaccine trials can be counted.)

<2> The dashboards are inflicting actual harm on the vaccination campaign, spreading the illusion that one dose is a complete vaccination. The world is soon to face a crisis of half-baked vaccinations.

<3> The government officials and celebrities must now get their second shots on camera to remind people to get them.

<4> In the Euro-zone, the second wave surge are being tamed after imposing more severe "lockdown" measures (mandatory night curfews, closing restaurants and bars, restricting movement, etc.) starting late October.

<5> Mortality trends are still highly predictable, demonstrating "statistical gravity". Current death rates reflect cases from up to a month ago. In the coming weeks, Italy's line would have fallen further, Germany's risen a little, and U.K.'s spiked. (Cross-reference the previous chart)

<6> The data in three key countries do not support the theory that the death rate from Covid-19 has declined. (Remember the U.S. and U.K. lines for the second wave have not yet peaked.)

<7> Rates don't tell the full story. Here are the cumulative death tolls, which show failure to control the spread is tragic.

<8> Death is a choice. Be smart.

 

Comments

[Antonio Rinaldi]

And now there is the proposal to postpone the second dose of vaccine that rages through the net.

[Kaiser]

AR: Based on my experience running lots of RCTs in a business setting, I already anticipated this attempt to extrapolate trial results so one of the links in my year-end review post addressed the many reasons why the one-dose treatment is bad policy. There will be a post tomorrow to examine the arguments being circulated.