Since new variants of the novel coronavirus have emerged, there is an expectation that we will soon learn whether the recently-approved vaccines will be effective against these new variants. The public has already been led astray, sometimes by scientists, about what constitutes evidence that these vaccines can stop the new variants.
With no proof, some scientists have already issued predictions that the vaccines would work. These arguments are purely on theoretical grounds. These scientists might think they are doing a public good but instead, these premature pronouncements hurt public confidence because they confirm people's suspicions that scientists are cutting corners.
We are starting to get some lab studies that are being touted as proof of efficacy. These lab studies are just the first step in answering the question but by no means do they provide a conclusion.
Think about this: if lab studies are sufficient to establish vaccine efficacy, then we would never have run a single clinical trial. We could have declared months ago based on lab studies that the Pfizer/Biontech, the Moderna, J&J, etc. all work. Clinical trials provide real-world conditions, real-world metrics, much larger sample sizes, and representative samples.
Lab studies are necessary but not sufficient to get to the answer. There should be follow-on clinical trials which embody statistical science to measure the efficacy. It is neither too hard nor too expensive to organize such trials - the vaccine is Big Business, imagine needing to give two shots to at least 75% of the world's population!
Separately, we will get some early signals from the U.K. as they roll out vaccinations. The case rate should start coming down massively if the Pfizer vaccine would cut the case rate by 95% (frequently claimed by scientists) despite the emergence of the new variant. Real-world evidence doesn't substitute clinical studies because if the case rate didn't fall drastically as expected, it is not clear that the new variant is the reason.
For those observing, we are seeing science in real time. Step 1 is the theory. Step 2 is the lab tests. Step 3 is clinical trial evidence. Step 4 is real-world impact.
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