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Michael Droy

We can debate whether Covid 19 is 1 or 2 or 3 times as dangerous as Flu.
But a vaccine is not a big deal in terms of saving lives, unlike say getting hospitals to do as many early cancer tests as before.
What is it essential for is for allowing Governments to walk back all the daft and damaging restrictions of the past year and getting Economies back to normal and getting lifestyles back to normal.

It is the excuse Governments (and media) need to undo all that damage without having to say Sorry.


The difference between the vaccine and placebo is so great that the p value is going to be very small, whether they include or exclude some patients. The standard analysis in a clinical trial is intention to treat, so AstraZeneca should be analysing as randomised. It seems that it will be very difficult to determine any difference between the vaccines, with usage coming down to cost, side effects, delivery costs and availability.


Ken: I have not checked the AstraZeneca protocol but the Moderna protocol specifically stated that the per-protocol analysis is considered primary, and the ITT analysis is check off the list. The language of the Pfizer protocol is less clear but I believe they also will primarily use per-protocol. Analyzing as random is a good thing but not as good when it is known that errors have affected the treatment dosage on a subset of the participants. Exclusions are important to look at because the numbers here are such that the difference between stopping for efficacy and stopping for failure is about 10 cases. Unfortunately, outsiders will probably not know whether any of the exclusions are infections. I hope they report whether anyone got infected between doses because those are excluded from the second dose.

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