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Sam

People keep talking about trust and "strict measures".

What exactly are you guys sacrificing? The argument that only old people die. Incorrect. If your health system is overwhelmed, all those ICU beds that go to patients with other diseases are snatched away.

The effects and cost of your citizens getting long covid, the emotional trauma of their loved ones passing away.

Kari

Actually swedish have counted that they will reach herd immunity by the end of june 2020. (AB 9.5.2020 Anders Björkman, Tom Britton, Tengel).

Some other datapoints

https://voxeu.org/article/sweden-s-constitution-decides-its-exceptional-covid-19-policy


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020

Kaiser

I see and welcome the discussion on policies and intentions. I do want to draw attention back to the original purpose of this post, which is how we look at data. These lessons can be applied beyond this example:
1. Find the most relevant statistic: in this case, it is the cumulative death rate per million,
2. Find something to compare to, and here it should be other Scandinavian countries that have taken a different approach
3. Success or failure of an intervention should be evaluated cumulatively: take the US election as another example, the candidate that wins the latest batch of votes isn't going to win the election if s/he is behind by a lot in already-counted votes.

drill down

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/22268/

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Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
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