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Nunya

Or, perhaps, something else caused those 60,000 deaths.

Locking down so people wouldn't go to the ER for chest pain, for instance.

Kaiser

N: The excess deaths analysis is "agnostic" in the sense that the gap can be explained by any cause(s). The analysis shows the scale of this gap - at least 50 percent of the normal level to over 700 percent higher (NYC). For this large a gap, we need new causes. If not the coronavirus, maybe there is a still unknown virus out there.

Here are the challenges one faces to try to use known causes to explain the excess deaths:
1) Any one pre-existing cause, like cancer, will account for say 10 percent of deaths at any time. It's hard to explain how multiple known causes of death suddenly spike sharply.
2) I've yet to see any confirmed death due to inability to go to ER - presumably they can start by investigating deaths at home.
3) Imagine one is able to confirm that lots of deaths are caused by the lockdown. Then, one should expect to see a period of substantial negative excess deaths. If we use existing causes to explain these excess deaths, then every death is by definition an accelerated death so it must lead to a negative excess death at some later time. Do we really think all those excess deaths will be reversed in the statistics later in the year or next year?


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