I can't and won't judge the truth value of this Business Insider report headlined "Birx reportedly said 'there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust' in a White House coronavirus task force meeting". Dr. Birx is one of the doctors, along with Dr. Fauci, who speaks at President Trump's daily press briefings.
In this hyper-politicized world, we need to keep a clear head. Here are three things to bear in mind when reading that report.
1. What is the alternative?
The CDC is the single most valuable and comprehensive source of data on public health in the U.S. Does the White House think that someone or some other organization have better data? Will these people reveal themselves and publish their data and analyses in an open forum?
All levels of governments are currently making many decisions that affect people's lives deeply. However, the discourse surrounding how such decisions were made, and what data (if any) were used to support them is nonexistent. This is true not only at the federal level but also at the state level. Where are the frontline scientists and why are they gagged?
Based on experience in the corporate arena, I can say there are those who will shoot the messenger when they don't like the data. Once the data are cleared out, often by blowing enough smoke into the room, they are free to do whatever they want. Are we witnessing this?
2. You be perfect and I be good
While I spent a lot of time on my blogs pointing out problems with the data and the analyses, I have never said anything as preposterous as there is "nothing" useful. Bad data can be made less bad. Missed data can be collected. Counting rules can be changed. Data can be improved all the time.
The claim that there is nothing useful coming out of the one organization that has the best data seems like a move to ignore the data, and do whatever one wants.
Here's what I think will happen. The people with data are being pushed away. The excuse is that they've failed to provide perfect data. Anything that they produce is challenged in ostensible pursuit of the impossible. They are criticized for failing to provide certainty.
Then, the people who don't have data but have "smarts" will make decisions. They have certainty because they are certain they are right. They are right because they are leaders. They sideswipe all challenges because they will say perfection is the enemy of the good.
3. Why is the data bad?
What are some reasons why the data from the CDC are bad? Shockingly, the people who complain that the data are bad are a big reason why the data are bad.
Take for example the failure on all levels to expand diagnostic testing, and recently, to sell antibody testing which is a decoy. When testing is limited to people with severe symptoms, you will not have good data that apply to the general population. For evidence, consider the issues researchers ran into when analyzing self-reported data from mobile apps.
As we all know by now, many places have not, and are still not, counting deaths from Covid-19 in homes and care homes. This causes death counts to be majorly underestimated. Tests are necessary to establish whether these were victims of Covid-19 or something other disease.
The members of the Task Force can immediately help make the data better if they cared about the quality of the data. When they aren't pushing diagnostic testing, while trashing the data, their real perceived enemy is not bad data but data. Period.
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