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John

"Exponential" is an imprecise term, in that the exponent isn't specified. Is it a doubling every day? A tripling? 50% growth?

Overall growth of total cases in Italy has been at about 14% for the past 6 days. IOW, the exponent is 1.14 That's not as high as it was, but it's still exponential (and too high). Hopefully the lock-down breaks this soon.

You're looking at Lombardia, which is fair, but a look at other regions will reveal other curves that fit better than the linear one does.

(You know all this, of course.)

Kaiser

John: thanks for providing this color because I have to make choices about how deep to go in the blog post without losing people in the weeds. The other important point that is implied is that even if one insists on using an exponential model, one can't fit an aggregate rate to all the data you have up to now. Such a model will not pick up any changes in rate due to success of containment.

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