« Triage testing is a terrible idea | Main | Note about fitting and visualizing exponential models »

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

John

"Exponential" is an imprecise term, in that the exponent isn't specified. Is it a doubling every day? A tripling? 50% growth?

Overall growth of total cases in Italy has been at about 14% for the past 6 days. IOW, the exponent is 1.14 That's not as high as it was, but it's still exponential (and too high). Hopefully the lock-down breaks this soon.

You're looking at Lombardia, which is fair, but a look at other regions will reveal other curves that fit better than the linear one does.

(You know all this, of course.)

Kaiser

John: thanks for providing this color because I have to make choices about how deep to go in the blog post without losing people in the weeds. The other important point that is implied is that even if one insists on using an exponential model, one can't fit an aggregate rate to all the data you have up to now. Such a model will not pick up any changes in rate due to success of containment.

The comments to this entry are closed.

CONTACT KAISER



Link to Kaiser Fung Consulting Inquiry

Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
Visit my website. Follow my Twitter. See my articles at Daily Beast, 538, HBR, Wired.
Get new posts by email:

Search ...

  • only on this blog

MY BOOKS



Numbers Rule Your World:

Amazon - Barnes&Noble



Numbersense:

Amazon - Barnes&Noble

Junk Charts Blog



Link to junkcharts

Graphics design by Amanda Lee

Community