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Merrick Usta

Nice proposal, would recommend using Bhattacharya distance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhattacharyya_distance) for distances within this probability simplex (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplex) and finding same-distance divergences from 50-50.

Cris

Sorry, but no amount of math could tell you this — you don’t know how people would have voted if there had been only two candidates. This method is as much a fallacy as what the news sources do. The only way of knowing how people would have voted in a 2-way election is to hold a 2-way election. In the same way that the only way to know if someone is electable is to see if they’re elected.

Kaiser

Cris: Here's how I think about it. I am not trying to predict who would have voted for whom - which as you pointed out, is a counterfactual. What I'm doing is more descriptive statistics. Given the observed vote share distribution, what can we learn about the competitiveness of the contest? What is really happening is that I'm finding a principled way to order multidimensional vectors. It's easy to order a 2-dimensional race where the winner's share is all you need. Once you have multiple contestants, it's not clear how to order the results. The fact that there is no one perfect method does not mean that all methods are equally bad!

Kaiser

MU: Thank you very much for those suggestions. Will reach out once I have more to say.

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