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In Australia, every month economists predict the expected unemployment mainly by extending the smoothed trend line, and then there are a lot of articles making claims about the reasons for the deviation from the expected, which is only statistical noise. The Australian Bureau of Statistics even plots the trend and seasonally adjusted together for the previous 12 months so that the noise is clearly visible.


Ken: The biggest problem as usual lies with how statistics are consumed. These metrics were never intended as objects to bet money on. Traders turn them into a horse race; why must others follow suit? Sampling errors are published in the U.S. too but routinely ignored.

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