Simple presentations

In the previous post, I looked at this chart that shows the distributions of four subgroups found in a dataset:

This chart takes quite some effort to decipher, as does another version I featured.

The key messages appear to be: (i) most English words are of Germanic origin, (ii) the most popular English words are even more skewed towards Germanic origin, (iii) words of French origin started showing up around rank 50, those of Latin origin around rank 250.

***

If we are making a graphic for presentation, we can simplify the visual clutter tremendously by - hmmm - a set of pie charts.

For those allergic to pies, here's a stacked column chart:

Both of these can be thought of as "samples" from the original chart, selected to highlight shifts in the relative proportions.

I also reversed the direction of the horizontal axis as I think the story is better told starting from the whole dataset and honing in on subsets.

 

P.S. [1/10/2025] A reader who has expertise in this subject also suggested a stacked column chart with reversed axis in a comment, so my recommendation here is confirmed.

Two challenging charts showing group distributions

Long-time reader Georgette A. found this chart from a Linkedin post by David Curran:

She found it hard to understand. Me too.

It's one of those charts that require some time to digest. And when you figured it out, you don't get the satisfaction of time well spent.

***

If I have to write a reading guide for this chart, I'd start from the right edge. The dataset consists of the top 2000 English words, ranked by popularity. The right edge of the chart says that roughly two-thirds of these 2000 words are of Germanic origin, followed by 20% French origin, 10% Latin origin, and 3% "others".

Now, look at the middle of the chart, where the 1000 gridline lies. The analyst did the same analysis but using just the top 1000 words, instead of the top 2000 words. Not surprisingly, Germanic words predominate. In fact, Germanic words account for an even higher percentage of the total, roughly three-quarters. French words are at 16% (relative to 20%), and Latin at 7% (compared to 10%).

The trend is this: as we restrict the word list to fewer and more popular words, the more Germanic words dominate. Of the top 50 words, all but 1 is of Germanic origin. (You can't tell that directly from the chart but you can figure it out if you measure it and do some calculations.)

Said differently, there are some non-Germanic words in the English language but they tend not to be used particularly often.

As we move our eyes from left to right on this chart, we are analyzing more words but the newly added words are less popular than those included prior. The distribution of words by origin is cumulative.

The problem with this data visualization is that it doesn't "locate" where these non-Germanic words exist. It's focused on a cumulative metric so the reader has to figure out where the area has increased and where it has flat-lined. This task is quite challenging in an area chart.

***

The following chart showing the same information is more canonical in the scientific literature.

This chart also requires a reading guide for those uninitiated. (Therefore, I'm not saying it's better than the original.)

The chart shows how words of a specific origin accumulates over the top X most popular English words. Each line starts at 0% on the left and ends at 100% on the right.

Note that the "other" line hugs to the zero level until X = 400, which means that there are no words of "other" origin in the top 400 list. We can see that words of "other" origin are mostly found between top 700-1000 and top 1700-2000, where the line is steepest. We can be even more precise: about 25% of these words are found in the top 700-1000 while 45% are found in the top 1700-2000.

In such a chart, the 45 degree line acts as a reference line. Any line that follows the 45 degree line indicates an even distribution: X% of the words of origin A are found in the top X% of the distribution. Origin A's words are not more or less popular than average anywhere in the distribution.

In this chart, nothing is on top of the 45 degree line. The Germanic line is everywhere above the 45 degree line. This means that on the left side, the line is steeper than 45 degrees while on the right side, its slope is less than 45 degrees. In other words, Germanic words are biased towards the left side, i.e. they are more likely to be popular words.

For example, amongst the top 400 (20%) of the word list, Germanic words accounted for 27%.

I can't imagine this chart is easy for anyone who hasn't seen it before; but if you are a scientist or economist, you might find this one easier to digest than the original.

 

 

Five-value summaries of distributions

BG commented on my previous post, describing her frustration with the “stacked range chart”:

A stacked graph visualizes cubes stacked one on top of the other. So you can't use it for negative numbers, because there's no such thing [as] "negative data". In graphs, a "minus" sign visualizes the opposite direction of one series from another. Doing average plus average plus average plus average doesn't seem logical at all.

***

I have already planned a second post to discuss the problems of using a stacked column chart to show markers of a numeric distribution.

I tried to replicate how the Youtuber generated his “stacked range chart” by appropriating Excel’s stacked column chart, but failed. I think there are some missing steps not mentioned in the video. At around 3:33 of the video, he shows a “hack” involving adding 100 degrees (any large enough value) to all values (already converted to ranges). Then, the next screen displays the resulting chart. Here is the dataset on the left and the chart on the right.

Afterwards, he replaces the axis labels with new labels, effectively shifting the axis. But something is missing from the narrative. Since he’s using a stacked column chart, the values in the table are encoded in the heights of the respective blocks. The total stacked heights of each column should be in the hundreds since he has added 100 to each cell. But that’s not what the chart shows.

***

In the rest of the post, I’ll skip over how to make such a chart in Excel, and talk about the consequences of inserting “range” values into the heights of the blocks of a stacked column chart.

Let’s focus on London, Ontario; the five temperature values, corresponding to various average temperatures, are -3, 5, 9, 14, 24. Just throwing those numbers into a stacked column chart in Excel results in the following useless chart:

The temperature averages are cumulatively summed, which makes no sense, as noted by reader BG. [My daily temperature data differ somewhat from those in the Youtube. My source is here.]

We should ignore the interiors of the blocks, and instead interpret the edges of these blocks. There are five edges corresponding to the five data values. As in:

The average temperature in London, Ontario (during Spring 2023-Winter 2024) is 9 C. This overall average hides seasonal as well as diurnal variations in temperature.

If we want to acknowledge that night-time temperatures are lower than day-time temperatures, we draw attention to the two values bracketing 9 C, i.e. 5 C and 14 C. The average daytime (max) temperature is 14 C while the average night-time (min) temperature is 5 C. Furthermore, Ontario experiences seasons, so that the average daytime temperature of 14 C is subject to seasonal variability; in the summer, it goes up to 24 C. In the winter, the average night-time temperature goes down to -3 C, compared to 5 C across all seasons. [For those paying closer attention, daytime/max and night-time/min form congruous pairs because the max temperature occurs during daytime while the min temperature occurs during night-time. Thus, the average of maximum temperatures is the same as the average of daytime maximum temperatures.]

The above dotplot illustrates this dataset adequately. The Youtuber explained why he didn’t like it – I couldn’t quite make sense of what he said. It’s possible he thinks the gaps between those averages are more meaningful than the averages themselves, and therefore he prefers a chart form that draws our attention to the ranges, rather than the values.

***

Our basic model of temperature can be thought of as: temperature on a given day = overall average + adjustment for seasonality + adjustment for diurnality.

Take the top three values 9, 14, 24 from above list. Starting at the overall average of 9 C, the analyst gets to 14 if he hones in on max daily temperatures, and to 24 if he further restricts the analysis to summer months (which have the higher temperatures). The second gap is 10 C, twice as large as the first gap of 5 C. Thus, the seasonal fluctuations have larger magnitude than daily fluctuations. Said differently, the effect of seasons on temperature is bigger than that of hour of day.

In interpreting the “ranges” or gaps between averages, narrow ranges suggest low variability while wider ranges suggest higher variability.

Here's a set of boxplots for the same data:

The boxplot "edges" also demarcate five values; they are not the same five values as defined by the Youtuber but both sets of five values describe the underlying distribution of temperatures.

 

P.S. For a different example of something similar, see this old post.

What is this "stacked range chart"?

Long-time reader Aleksander B. sent me to this video (link), in which a Youtuber ranted that most spreadsheet programs do not make his favorite chart. This one:

Two questions immediately come to mind: a) what kind of chart is this? and b) is it useful?

Evidently, the point of the above chart is to tell readers there are (at least) three places called “London”, only one of which features red double-decker buses. He calls this a “stacked range chart”. This example has three stacked columns, one for each place called London.

What can we learn from this chart? The range of temperatures is narrowest in London, England while it is broadest in London, Ontario (Canada). The highest temperature is in London, Kentucky (USA) while the lowest is in London, Ontario.

But what kind of “range” are we talking about? Do the top and bottom of each stacked column indicate the maximum and minimum temperatures as we’ve interpreted them to be? In theory, yes, but in this example, not really.

Let’s take one step back, and think about the data. Elsewhere in the video, another version of this chart contains a legend giving us hints about the data. (It's the chart on the right of the screenshot.)

Each column contains four values: the average maximum and minimum temperatures in each place, the average maximum temperature in summer, and the average minimum temperature in winter. These metrics are mouthfuls of words, because the analyst has to describe what choices were made while aggregating the raw data.

The raw data comprise daily measurements of temperatures at each location. (To make things even more complex, there are likely multiple measurement stations in each town, and thus, the daily temperatures themselves may already be averages; or else, the analyst has picked a representative station for each town.) From this single sequence of daily data, we extract two subsequences: the maximum daily, and the minimum daily. This transformation acknowledges that temperatures fluctuate, sometimes massively, over the course of each day.

Each such subsequence is aggregated to four representative numbers. The first pair of max, min is just the averages of the respective subsequences. The remaining two numbers require even more explanation. The “summer average maximum temperature” should be the average of the max subsequence after filtering it down to the “summer” months. Thus, it’s a trimmed average of the max subsequence, or the average of the summer subsequence of the max subsequence. Since summer temperatures are the highest of the four seasons, this number suggests the maximum of the max subsequence, but it’s not the maximum daily maximum since it’s still an average. Similarly, the “winter average minimum temperature” is another trimmed average, computed over the winter months, which is related to but not exactly the minimum daily minimum.

Thus, the full range of each column is the difference between the trimmed summer average and the trimmed winter average. I assume weather scientists use this metric instead of the full range of max to min temperature because it’s less affected by outlier values.

***

Stepping out of the complexity, I’ll say this: what the “stacked range chart” depicts are selected values along the distribution of a single numeric data series. In this sense, this chart is a type of “boxplot”.

Here is a random one I grabbed from a search engine.

A boxplot, per its inventor Tukey, shows a five-number summary of a distribution: the median, the 25^th and 75^th percentile, and two “whisker values”. Effectively, the boxplot shows five percentile values. The two whisker values are also percentiles, but not fixed percentiles like 25^th, 50^th, and 75^th. The placement of the whiskers is determined automatically by a formula that determines the threshold for outliers, which in turn depends on the shape of the data distribution. Anything contained within the whiskers is regarded as a “normal” value of the distribution, not an outlier. Any value larger than the upper whisker value, or lower than the lower whisker value, is an outlier. (Outliers are shown individually as dots above or below the whiskers - I see this as an optional feature because it doesn't make sense to show them individually for large datasets with lots of outliers.)

The stacked range chart of temperatures picks off different waypoints along the distribution but in spirit, it is a boxplot.

***

This discussion leads me to the answer to our second question: is the "stacked range chart" useful?  The boxplot is indeed useful. It does a good job describing the basic shape of any distribution.

I make variations of the boxplot all the time, with different percentiles. One variation commonly seen out there replaces the whisker values with the maximum and minimum values. Thus all the data live within the whiskers. This wasn’t what Tukey originally intended but the max-min version can be appropriate in some situations.

Most statistical software makes the boxplot. Excel is the one big exception. It has always been a mystery to me why the Excel developers are so hostile to the boxplot.

 

P.S. Here is the official manual for making a box plot in Excel. I wonder if they are the leading promoter of the max-min boxplot that strays from Tukey's original. It is possible to make the original whiskers but I suppose they don't want to explain it, and it's much easier to have people compute the maximum and minimum values in the dataset.

The max-min boxplot is misleading if the dataset contains true outliers. If the maximum value is really far from the 75th percentile, then most of the data between the 75th and 100th percentile could be sitting just above the top of the box.

 

P.S. [1/9/2025] See the comments below. Steve made me realize that the color legend of the London chart actually has five labels, the last one is white which blends into the white background. Note that, in the next post in this series, I found that I could not replicate the guy's process to produce the stacked column chart in Excel so I went in a different direction.

Dot plots with varying dot sizes

In a prior post, I appreciated the effort by the Bloomberg Graphics team to describe the diverging fortunes of Japanese and Chinese car manufacturers in various Asian markets.

The most complex chart used in that feature is the following variant of a dot plot:

This chart plots the competitors in the Chinese domestic car market. Each bubble represents a car brand. Using the styling of the entire article, the red color is associated with Japanese brands while the medium gray color indicates Chinese brands. The light gray color shows brands from the rest of the world. (In my view, adding the pink for U.S. and blue for German brands - seen on the first chart in this series - isn't too much.)

The dot size represents the current relative market share of the brand. The main concern of the Bloomberg article is the change in market share in the period 2019-2024. This is placed on the horizontal axis, so the bubbles on the right side represent growing brands while the bubbles on the left, weakening brands.

All the Japanese brands are stagnating or declining, from the perspective of market share.

The biggest loser appears to be Volkswagen although it evidently started off at a high level since its bubble size after shrinkage is still among the largest.

***

This chart form is a composite. There are at least two ways to describe it. I prefer to see it as a dot plot with an added dimension of dot size. A dot plot typically plots a single dimension on a single axis, and here, a second dimension is encoded in the sizes of the dots.

An alternative interpretation is that it is a scatter plot with a third dimension in the dot size. Here, the vertical dimension is meaningless, as the dots are arbitrarily spread out to prevent overplotting. This arrangement is also called the bubble plot if we adopt a convention that a bubble is a dot of variable size. In a typical bubble plot, both vertical and horizontal axes carry meaning but here, the vertical axis is arbitrary.

The bubble plot draws attention to the variable in the bubble size, the scatter plot emphasizes two variables encoded in the grid while the dot plot highlights a single metric. Each shows secondary metrics.

***

Another revelation of the graph is the fragmentation of the market. There are many dots, especially medium gray dots. There are quite a few Chinese local manufacturers, most of which experienced moderate growth. Most of these brands are startups - this can be inferred because the size of the dot is about the same as the change in market share.

The only foreign manufacturer to make material gains in the Chinese market is Tesla.

The real story of the chart is BYD. I almost missed its dot on first impression, as it sits on the far right edge of the chart (in the original webpage, the right edge of the chart is aligned with the right edge of the text). BYD is the fastest growing brand in China, and its top brand. The pedestrian gray color chosen for Chinese brands probably didn't help. Besides, I had a little trouble figuring out if the BYD bubble is larger than the largest bubble in the size legend shown on the opposite end of BYD. (I measured, and indeed the BYD bubble is slightly larger.)

This dot chart (with variable dot sizes) is nice for highlighting individual brands. But it doesn't show aggregates. One of the callouts on the chart reads: "Chinese cars' share rose by 23%, with BYD at the forefront". These words are necessary because it's impossible to figure out that the total share gain by all Chinese brands is 23% from this chart form.

They present this information in the line chart that I included in the last post, repeated here:

The first chart shows that cumulatively, Chinese brands have increased their share of the Chinese market by 23 percent while Japanese brands have ceded about 9 percent of market share.

The individual-brand view offers other insights that can't be found in the aggregate line chart. We can see that in addition to BYD, there are a few local brands that have similar market shares as Tesla.

***

It's tough to find a single chart that brings out insights at several levels of analysis, which is why we like to talk about a "visual story" which typically comprises a sequence of charts.

 

Fantastic auto show from the Bloomberg crew

I really enjoyed the charts in this Bloomberg feature on the state of Japanese car manufacturers in the Southeast Asian and Chinese markets (link). This article contains five charts, each of which is both engaging and well-produced.

***

Each chart has a clear message, and the visual display is clearly adapted for purpose.

The simplest chart is the following side-by-side stacked bar chart, showing the trend in share of production of cars:

Back in 1998, Japan was the top producer, making about 22% of all passenger cars in the world. China did not have much of a car industry. By 2023, China has dominated global car production, with almost 40% of share. Japan has slipped to second place, and its share has halved.

The designer is thoughtful about each label that is placed on the chart. If something is not required to tell the story, it's not there. Consistently across all five charts, they code Japan in red, and China in a medium gray color. (The coloring for the rest of the world is a bit inconsistent; we'll get to that later.)

Readers may misinterpret the cause of this share shift if this were the only chart presented to them. By itself, the chart suggests that China simply "stole" share from Japan (and other countries). What is true is that China has invested in a car manufacturing industry. A more subtle factor is that the global demand for cars has grown, with most of the growth coming from the Chinese domestic market and other emerging markets - and many consumers favor local brands. Said differently, the total market size in 2023 is much higher than that in 1998.

***

Bloomberg also made a chart that shows market share based on demand:

This is a small-multiples chart consisting of line charts. Each line chart shows market share trends in five markets (China and four Southeast Asian nations) from 2019 to 2024. Take the Chinese market for example. The darker gray line says Chinese brands have taken 20 percent additional market share since 2019; note that the data series is cumulative over the entire window. Meanwhile, brands from all other countries lost market share, with the Japanese brands (in red) losing the most.

The numbers are relative, which means that the other brands have not necessarily suffered declines in sales. This chart by itself doesn't tell us what happened to sales; all we know is the market shares of brands from different countries relative to their baseline market share in 2019. (Strange period to pick out as it includes the entire pandemic.)

The designer demonstrates complete awareness of the intended message of the chart. The lines for Chinese and Japanese brands were bolded to highlight the diverging fortunes, not just in China, but also in Southeast Asia, to various extents.

On this chart, the designer splits out US and German brands from the rest of the world. This is an odd decision because the categorization is not replicated in the other four charts. Thus, the light gray color on this chart excludes U.S. and Germany while the same color on the other charts includes them. I think they could have given U.S. and Germany their own colors throughout.

***

The primacy of local brands is hinted at in the following chart showing how individual brands fared in each Southeast Asian market:

 

This chart takes the final numbers from the line charts above, that is to say, the change in market share from 2019 to 2024, but now breaks them down by individual brand names. As before, the red bubbles represent Japanese brands, and the gray bubbles Chinese brands. The American and German brands are lumped in with the rest of the world and show up as light gray bubbles.

I'll discuss this chart form in a next post. For now, I want to draw your attention to the Malaysia market which is the last row of this chart.

What we see there are two dominant brands (Perodua, Proton), both from "rest of the world" but both brands are Malaysian. These two brands are the biggest in Malaysia and they account for two of the three highest growing brands there. The other high-growth brand is Chery, which is a Chinese brand; even though it is growing faster, its market share is still much smaller than the Malaysian brands, and smaller than Toyota and Honda. Honda has suffered a lot in this market while Toyota eked out a small gain.

The impression given by this bubble chart is that Chinese brands have not made much of a dent in Malaysia. But that would not be correct, if we believe the line chart above. According to the line chart, Chinese brands roughly earned the same increase in market share (about 3%) as "other" brands.

What about the bubble chart might be throwing us off?

It seems that the Chinese brands were starting from zero, thus the growth is the whole bubble. For the Malaysian brands, the growth is in the outer ring of the bubbles, and the larger the bubble, the thinner is the ring. Our attention is dominated by the bubble size which represents a snapshot in the ending year, providing no information about the growth (which is shown on the horizontal axis).

***

For more discussion of Bloomberg graphics, see here.

Election coverage prompts good graphics

The election broadcasts in the U.S. are full-day affairs, and they make a great showcase for interactive graphics.

The election setting is optimal as it demands clear graphics that are instantly digestible. Anything else would have left viewers confused or frustrated.

The analytical concepts conveyed by the talking heads during these broadcasts are quite sophisticated, and they did a wonderful job at it.

***

One such concept is the value of comparing statistics against a benchmark (or, even multiple benchmarks). This analytics tactic comes in handy in the 2024 election especially, because both leading candidates are in some sense incumbents. Kamala was part of the Biden ticket in 2020, while Trump competed in both 2016 and 2020 elections.

In the above screenshot, taken around 11 pm on election night, the MSNBC host (that looks like Steve K.) was searching for Kamala votes because it appeared that she was losing the state of Georgia. The question of the moment: were there enough votes left for her to close the gap?

In the graphic (first numeric column), we were seeing Kamala winning 65% of the votes, against Trump's 34%, in Douglas county in Georgia. At first sight, one would conclude that Kamala did spectacularly well here.

But, is 65% good enough? One can't answer this question without knowing past results. How did Biden-Harris do in the 2020 election when they won the presidency?

The host touched the interactive screen to reveal the second column of numbers, which allows viewers to directly compare the results. At the time of the screenshot, with 94% of the votes counted, Kamala was performing better in this county than they did in 2020 (65% vs 62%). This should help her narrow the gap.

If in 2020, they had also won 65% of the Douglas county votes, then, we should not expect the vote margin to shrink after counting the remaining 6% of votes. This is why the benchmark from 2020 is crucial. (Of course, there is still the possibility that the remaining votes were severely biased in Kamala's favor but that would not be enough, as I'll explain further below.)

All stations used this benchmark; some did not show the two columns side by side, making it harder to do the comparison.

Interesting side note: Douglas county has been rapidly shifting blue in the last two decades. The proportion of whites in the county dropped from 76% to 35% since 2000 (link).

***

Though Douglas county was encouraging for Kamala supporters, the vote gap in the state of Georgia at the time was over 130,000 in favor of Trump. The 6% in Douglas represented only about 4,500 votes (= 70,000*0.06/0.94). Even if she won all of them (extremely unlikely), it would be far from enough.

So, the host flipped to Fulton county, the most populous county in Georgia, and also a Democratic stronghold. This is where the battle should be decided.

Using the same format - an interactive version of a small-multiples arrangement, the host looked at the situation in Fulton. The encouraging sign was that 22% of the votes here had not yet been counted. Moreover, she captured 73% of those votes that had been tallied. This was 10 percentage points better than her performance in Douglas, Ga. So, we know that many more votes were coming in from Fulton, with the vast majority being Democratic.

But that wasn't the full story. We have to compare these statistics to our 2020 benchmark. This comparison revealed that she faced a tough road ahead. That's because Biden-Harris also won 73% of the Fulton votes in 2020. She might not earn additional votes here that could be used to close the state-wide gap.

If the 73% margin held to the end of the count, she would win 90,000 additional votes in Fulton but Trump would win 33,000, so that the state-wide gap should narrow by 57,000 votes. Let's round that up, and say Fulton halved Trump's lead in Georgia. But where else could she claw back the other half?

***

From this point, the analytics can follow one of two paths, which should lead to the same conclusion. The first path runs down the list of Georgia counties. The second path goes up a level to a state-wide analysis, similar to what was done in my post on the book blog (link).

Around this time, Georgia had counted 4.8 million votes, with another 12% outstanding. So, about 650,000 votes had not been assigned to any candidate. The margin was about 135,000 in Trump's favor, which amounted to 20% of the outstanding votes. But that was 20% on top of her base value of 48% share, meaning she had to claim 68% of all remaining votes. (If in the outstanding votes, she got the same share of 48% as in the already-counted, then she would lose the state with the same vote margin as currently seen, and would lose by even more absolute votes.)

The reason why the situation was more hopeless than it even sounded here is that the 48% base value came from the 2024 votes that had been counted; thus, for example, it included her better-than-benchmark performance in Douglas county. She would have to do even better to close the gap! In Fulton, which has the biggest potential, she was unable to push the vote share above the 2020 level.

That's why in my book blog (link), I suggested that the networks could have called Georgia (and several other swing states) earlier, if they used "numbersense" rather than mathematical impossibility as the criterion.

***

Before ending, let's praise the unsung heroes - the data analysts who worked behind the scenes to make these interactive graphics possible.

The graphics require data feeds, which cover a broad scope, from real-time vote tallies to total votes casted, both at the county level and the state level. While the focus is on the two leading candidates, any votes going to other candidates have to be tabulated, even if not displayed. The talking heads don't just want raw vote counts; in order to tell the story of the election, they need some understanding of how many votes are still to be counted, where they are coming from, what's the partisan lean on those votes, how likely is the result going to deviate from past elections, and so on.

All those computations must be automated, but manually checked. The graphics software has to be reliable; the hosts can touch any part of the map to reveal details, and it's not possible to predict all of the user interactions in advance.

Most importantly, things will go wrong unexpectedly during election night so many data analysts were on standby, scrambling to fix issues like breakage of some data feed from some county in some state.

Criminal graphics graphical crime

One of my Twitter followers disliked the following chart showing FBI crime statistics for 2023 (link):

If read quickly, the clear message of the chart is that something spiked on the right side of the curve.

But that isn't the message of the chart. The originator applied this caption: "The age-crime curve last year looked pretty typical. How about this year? Same as always. Victims and offenders still have highly similar, relatively young ages."

So the intended message is that the blue and the red lines are more or less the same.

***

What about the spike on the far right? 

If read too quickly, one might think that the oldest segment of Americans went on a killing spree last year. One must read the axis label to learn that elders weren't committing more homicides, but what spiked were murderers with "unknown" age.

A quick fix of this is to plot the unknowns as a column chart on the right, disconnecting it from the age distribution. Like this:

***

This spike in unknowns appears consequential: the count is over 2,000, larger than the numbers for most age groups.

Curiously, unknowns in age spiked only for offenders but not victims. So perhaps those are unsolved cases, for which the offender's age is unknown but the victim's age is known.

If that hypothesis is correct, then the same pattern will be seen year upon year. I checked this in the FBI database, and found that every year about 2,000 offenders have unknown age.

In other words, the unknowns cannot be the main story here. Instead of dominating our attention, it should be pushed to the background, e.g. in a footnote.

***

Next, because the amount of unknowns is so different between the offenders and victims, comparing two curves of counts is problematic. Such a comparison is based on the assumption that there are similar total numbers of offenders and victims. (There were in fact 5% more offenders than there were victims in 2023.)

The red and blue lines are not as similar as one might think.

Take the 40-49 age group. The blue value is 1,746 while the red value is 2,431, a difference of 685, which is 40 percent of 1,746! If we convert each to proportions, ignoring unknowns, the blue value is 12% compared to the red value of 15%, a difference of 3% which is a quarter of 12%.

By contrast, in the 10-19 age group, the blue value is 3,101 while the red value is 2,147, a difference of about 1,000, which is a third of 3,101. Converted to proportions, ignoring unknowns, the blue value is 21% compared to the red value of 13%, a difference of 8% which is almost 40% of 21%.

It's really hard to argue that these age distributions are "similar".

As seen from the above, offenders are much more likely to be younger (10-29 years old) than victims, and they are also much more likely to be 90+! Meanwhile, the victims are more likely to be 60-89.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Visualizing extremes

The New York Times published this chart to illustrate the extreme ocean heat driving the formation of hurricane Milton (link):

The chart expertly shows layers of details.

The red line tracks the current year's data on ocean heat content up to yesterday.

Meaning is added through the gray line that shows the average trajectory of the past decade. With the addition of this average line, we can readily see how different the current year's data is from the past. In particular, we see that the current season can be roughly divided into three parts: from May to mid June, and also from August to October, the ocean heat this year was quite a bit higher than the 10-year average, whereas from mid June to August, it was just above average.

Even more meaning is added when all the individual trajectories from the last decade are shown (in light gray lines). With this addition, we can readily learn how extreme is this year's data. For the post-August period, it's clear that the Gulf of Mexico is the hottest it's been in the past decade. Also, this extreme is not too far from the previous extreme. On the other hand, the extreme in late May-early June is rather more scary. 

 

 

Aligning the visual and the message to hot things up

The headline of this NBC News chart (link) tells readers that Phoenix (Arizona) has been very, very hot this year. It has over 120 days in which the average temperature exceeded 100F (38 C).

It's not obvious how extreme this situation is. To help readers, it would be useful to add some kind of reference points.

A couple of possibilities come to mind:

First, how many days are depicted in the chart? Since there is one cell for each day of the year, and the day of week is plotted down the vertical axis, we just need to count the number of columns. There are 38 columns, but the first column has one missing cell while the last column has only 3 cells. Thus, the number of days depicted is (36*7)+6+3 = 261. So, the average temperature in Phoenix exceeded 100F on about 46% of the days of the year thus far.

That sounds like a high number. For a better reference point, we'd also like to know the historical average. Is Phoenix just a very hot place? Is 2024 hotter than usual?

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Let's walk through how one reads the Phoenix "heatmap".

We already figured out that each column represents a week of the year, and each row shows a cross-section of a given day of week throughout the year.

The first column starts on a Monday because the first day of 2024 falls on a Monday. The last column ends on a Tuesday, which corresponds to Sept 17, 2024, the last day of data when this chart was created.

The columns are grouped into months, although such division is complicated by the fact that the number of days in a month (except for a leap month) isn't ever divisible by seven. The designer subtly inserted a thicker border between months. This feature allows readers to comment on the average temperature in a given month. It also lets readers learn quickly that we are two weeks and three days into September.

The color legend explains that temperature readings range from yellow (lower) to red (higher). The range of average daily temperatures during 2024 was 54-118F (12-48C). The color scale is progressive.

Given that 100F is used as a threshold to define "hot days," it makes sense to accentuate this in the visual presentation. For example:

Here, all days with maximum temperature at 100F or above have a red hue.