Who is a millennial? An example of handling uncertainty

I found this fascinating chart from CNBC, which attempts to nail down the definition of a millennial.

It turns out everyone defines "millennials" differently. They found 23 different definitions. Some media outlets apply different definitions in different items.

I appreciate this effort a lot. The design is thoughtful. In making this chart, the designer added the following guides:

• The text draws attention to the definition with the shortest range of birth years, and the one with the largest range.
• The dashed gray gridlines help with reading the endpoints of each bar.
• The yellow band illustrates the so-called average range. It appears that this average range is formed by taking the average of the beginning years and the average of the ending years. This indicates a desire to allow comparisons between each definition and the average range.
• The bars are ordered by the ending birth year (right edge).

The underlying issue is how to display uncertainty. The interest here is not just to feature the "average" definition of a millennial but to show the range of definitions.

***

In making my chart, I apply a different way to find the "average" range. Given any year, say 1990, what is the chance that it is included in any of the definitions? In other words, what proportion of the definitions include that year? In the following chart, the darker the color, the more likely that year is included by the "average" opinion.

I ordered the bars from shortest to the longest so there is no need to annotate them. Based on this analysis, 90 percent (or higher) of the sources list 19651985 to 1993 as part of the range while 70 percent (or higher) list 19611981 to 1996 as part of the range.

 

 

Tennis greats at the top of their game

The following chart of world No. 1 tennis players looks pretty but the payoff of spending time to understand it isn't high enough. The light colors against the tennis net backdrop don't work as intended. The annotation is well done, and it's always neat to tug a legend inside the text.

The original is found at Tableau Public (link).

The topic of the analysis appears to be the ages at which tennis players attained world #1 ranking. Here are the male players visualized differently:

Some players like Jimmy Connors and Federer have second springs after dominating the game in their late twenties. It's relatively rare for players to get to #1 after 30.

This Wimbledon beauty will be ageless

This Financial Times chart paints the picture of the emerging trend in Wimbledon men’s tennis: the average age of players has been rising, and hits 30 years old for the first time ever in 2019.

The chart works brilliantly. Let's look at the design decisions that contributed to its success.

The chart contains a good amount of data and the presentation is carefully layered, with the layers nicely tied to some visual cues.

Readers are drawn immediately to the average line, which conveys the key statistical finding. The blue dot  reinforces the key message, aided by the dotted line drawn at 30 years old. The single data label that shows a number also highlights the message.

Next, readers may notice the large font that is applied to selected players. This device draws attention to the human stories behind the dry data. Knowledgable fans may recall fondly when Borg, Becker and Chang burst onto the scene as teenagers.

 

Then, readers may pick up on the ticker-tape data that display the spread of ages of Wimbledon players in any given year. There is some shading involved, not clearly explained, but we surmise that it illustrates the range of ages of most of the contestants. In a sense, the range of probable ages and the average age tell the same story. The current trend of rising ages began around 2005.

 

Finally, a key data processing decision is disclosed in chart header and sub-header. The chart only plots the players who reached the fourth round (16). Like most decisions involved in data analysis, this choice has both desirable and undesirable effects. I like it because it thins out the data. The chart would have appeared more cluttered otherwise, in a negative way.

The removal of players eliminated in the early rounds limits the conclusion that one can draw from the chart. We are tempted to generalize the finding, saying that the average men’s player has increased in age – that was what I said in the first paragraph. Thinking about that for a second, I am not so sure the general statement is valid.

The overall field might have gone younger or not grown older, even as the older players assert their presence in the tournament. (This article provides side evidence that the conjecture might be true: the author looked at the average age of players in the top 100 ATP ranking versus top 1000, and learned that the average age of the top 1000 has barely shifted while the top 100 players have definitely grown older.)

So kudos to these reporters for writing a careful headline that stays true to the analysis.

I also found this video at FT that discussed the chart.

***

This chart about Wimbledon players hits the Trifecta. It has an interesting – to some, surprising – message (Q). It demonstrates thoughtful processing and analysis of the data (D). And the visual design fits well with its intended message (V). (For a comprehensive guide to the Trifecta Checkup, see here.)

Too much of a good thing

Several of us discussed this data visualization over twitter last week. The dataviz by Aero Data Lab is called “A Bird’s Eye View of Pharmaceutical Research and Development”. There is a separate discussion on STAT News.

Here is the top section of the chart:

We faced a number of hurdles in understanding this chart as there is so much going on. The size of the shapes is perhaps the first thing readers notice, followed by where the shapes are located along the horizontal (time) axis. After that, readers may see the color of the shapes, and finally, the different shapes (circles, triangles,...).

It would help to have a legend explaining the sizes, shapes and colors. These were explained within the text. The size encodes the number of test subjects in the clinical trials. The color encodes pharmaceutical companies, of which the graphic focuses on 10 major ones. Circles represent completed trials, crosses inside circles represent terminated trials, triangles represent trials that are still active and recruiting, and squares for other statuses.

The vertical axis presents another challenge. It shows the disease conditions being investigated. As a lay-person, I cannot comprehend the logic of the order. With over 800 conditions, it became impossible to find a particular condition. The search function on my browser skipped over the entire graphic. I believe the order is based on some established taxonomy.

***

In creating the alternative shown below, I stayed close to the original intent of the dataviz, retaining all the dimensions of the dataset. Instead of the fancy dot plot, I used an enhanced data table. The encoding methods reflect what I’d like my readers to notice first. The color shading reflects the size of each clinical trial. The pharmaceutical companies are represented by their first initials. The status of the trial is shown by a dot, a cross or a square.

Here is a sketch of this concept showing just the top 10 rows.

Certain conditions attracted much more investment. Certain pharmas are placing bets on cures for certain conditions. For example, Novartis is heavily into research on Meningnitis, meningococcal while GSK has spent quite a bit on researching "bacterial infections."

What is a bad chart?

In the recent issue of Madolyn Smith’s Conversations with Data newsletter hosted by DataJournalism.com, she discusses “bad charts,” featuring submissions from several dataviz bloggers, including myself.

What is a “bad chart”? Based on this collection of curated "bad charts", it is not easy to nail down “bad-ness”. The common theme is the mismatch between the message intended by the designer and the message received by the reader, a classic error of communication. How such mismatch arises depends on the specific example. I am able to divide the “bad charts” into two groups: charts that are misinterpreted, and charts that are misleading.

 

Charts that are misinterpreted

The Causes of Death entry, submitted by Alberto Cairo, is a “well-designed” chart that requires “reading the story where it is inserted and the numerous caveats.” So readers may misinterpret the chart if they do not also partake the story at Our World in Data which runs over 1,500 words not including the appendix.

The map of Canada, submitted by Highsoft, highlights in green the provinces where the majority of residents are members of the First Nations. The “bad” is that readers may incorrectly “infer that a sizable part of the Canadian population is First Nations.”

In these two examples, the graphic is considered adequate and yet the reader fails to glean the message intended by the designer.

 

Charts that are misleading

Two fellow bloggers, Cole Knaflic and Jon Schwabish, offer the advice to start bars at zero (here's my take on this rule). The “bad” is the distortion introduced when encoding the data into the visual elements.

The Color-blindness pictogram, submitted by Severino Ribecca, commits a similar faux pas. To compare the rates among men and women, the pictograms should use the same baseline.

In these examples, readers who correctly read the charts nonetheless leave with the wrong message. (We assume the designer does not intend to distort the data.) The readers misinterpret the data without misinterpreting the graphics.

 

Using the Trifecta Checkup

In the Trifecta Checkup framework, these problems are second-level problems, represented by the green arrows linking up the three corners. (Click here to learn more about using the Trifecta Checkup.)

The visual design of the Causes of Death chart is not under question, and the intended message of the author is clearly articulated in the text. Our concern is that the reader must go outside the graphic to learn the full message. This suggests a problem related to the syncing between the visual design and the message (the QV edge).

By contrast, in the Color Blindness graphic, the data are not under question, nor is the use of pictograms. Our concern is how the data got turned into figurines. This suggests a problem related to the syncing between the data and the visual (the DV edge).

***

When you complain about a misleading chart, or a chart being misinterpreted, what do you really mean? Is it a visual design problem? a data problem? Or is it a syncing problem between two components?

Tightening the bond between the message and the visual: hello stats-cats

The editors of ASA's Amstat News certainly got my attention, in a recent article on school counselling. A research team asked two questions. The first was HOW ARE YOU FELINE?

Stats and cats. The pun got my attention and presumably also made others stop and wonder. The second question was HOW DO YOU REMEMBER FEELING while you were taking a college statistics course? Well, it's hard to imagine the average response to that question would be positive.

What also drew me to the article was this pair of charts:

Surely, ASA can do better. (I'm happy to volunteer my time!)

Rotate the chart, clean up the colors, remove the decimals, put the chart titles up top, etc.

***

The above remedies fall into the V corner of my Trifecta checkup.

The key to fixing this chart is to tighten the bond between the message and the visual. This means working that green link between the Q and V corners.

This much became clear after reading the article. The following paragraphs are central to the research (bolding is mine):

Responses indicated the majority of school counselors recalled experiences of studying statistics in college that they described with words associated with more unpleasant affect (i.e., alarm, anger, distress, fear, misery, gloom, depression, sadness, and tiredness; n = 93; 66%). By contrast, a majority of counselors reported same-day (i.e., current) emotions that appeared to be associated with more pleasant affect (i.e., pleasure, happiness, excitement, astonishment, sleepiness, satisfaction, and calm; n = 123; 88%).

Both recalled emotive experiences and current emotional states appeared approximately balanced on dimensions of arousal: recalled experiences associated with lower arousal (i.e., pleasure, misery, gloom, depression, sadness, tiredness, sleepiness, satisfaction, and calm, n = 65, 46%); recalled experiences associated with higher arousal (i.e., happiness, excitement, astonishment, alarm, anger, distress, fear, n = 70, 50%); current emotions associated with lower arousal (n = 60, 43%); current experiences associated with higher arousal (i.e., n = 79, 56%).

These paragraphs convey two crucial pieces of information: the structure of the analysis, and its insights.

The two survey questions measure two states of experiences, described as current versus recalled. Then the individual affects (of which there were 16 plus an option of "other") are scored on two dimensions, pleasure and arousal. Each affect maps to high or low pleasure, and separately to high or low arousal.

The research insight is that current experience was noticably higher than recalled experience on the pleasure dimension but both experiences were similar on the arousal dimension.

Any visualization of this research must bring out this insight.

***

Here is an attempt to illustrate those paragraphs:

The primary conclusion can be read from the four simple pie charts in the middle of the page. The color scheme shines light on which affects are coded as high or low for each dimension. For example, "distressed" is scored as showing low pleasure and high arousal.

A successful data visualization for this situation has to bring out the conclusion drawn at the aggregated level, while explaining the connection between individual affects and their aggregates.

Book review: Visualizing Baseball

I requested a copy of Jim Albert’s Visualizing Baseball book, which is part of the ASA-CRC series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society that has the explicit goal of reaching a mass audience.

The best feature of Albert’s new volume is its brevity. For someone with a decent background in statistics (and grasp of basic baseball jargon), it’s a book that can be consumed within one week, after which one receives a good overview of baseball analytics, otherwise known as sabermetrics.

Within fewer than 200 pages, Albert outlines approaches to a variety of problems, including:

• Comparing baseball players by key hitting (or pitching) metrics
• Tracking a player’s career
• Estimating the value of different plays, such as a single, a triple or a walk
• Predicting expected runs in an inning from the current state of play
• Analyzing pitches and swings using PitchFX data
• Describing the effect of ballparks on home runs
• Estimating the effect of particular plays on the outcome of a game
• Simulating “fake” games and seasons in order to produce probabilistic forecasts such as X% chance that team Y will win the World Series
• Examining whether a hitter is “streaky” or not

Most of the analyses are descriptive in nature, e.g. describing the number and types of pitches thrown by a particular pitcher, or the change in on-base percentage over the career of a particular hitter. A lesser number of pages are devoted to predictive analytics. This structure is acceptable in a short introductory book. In practice, decision-makers require more sophisticated work on top of these descriptive analyses. For example, what’s the value of telling a coach that the home run was the pivotal moment in a 1-0 game that has played out?

To appreciate the practical implications of the analyses included in this volume, I’d recommend reading Moneyball by Michael Lewis, or the more recent Astroball by Ben Reiter.

For the more serious student of sabermetrics, key omitted details will need to be gleaned from other sources, including other books by the same author – for years, I have recommended Curve Ball by Albert and Bennett to my students.

***

In the final chapters, Albert introduced the simulation of “fake” seasons that underlies predictions. An inquiring reader should investigate how the process is tied back to the reality of what actually happened; otherwise, the simulation will have a life of its own. Further, if one simulates 1,000 seasons of 2018 baseball, a large number of these fake seasons would crown some team other than the Red Sox as the 2018 World Series winner. Think about it: that’s how it is possible to make the prediction that the Red Sox has a say 60 percent chance of winning the World Series in 2018! A key to understanding the statistical way of thinking is to accept the logic of this fake simulated world. It is not the stated goal of Albert to convince readers of the statistical way of thinking – but you’re not going to be convinced unless you think about why we do it this way.

***

While there are plenty of charts included in the book, a more appropriate title for “Visualizing Baseball” would have been “Fast Intro to Baseball Analytics”. With several exceptions, the charts are not essential to understanding the analyses. The dominant form of exposition is first describe the analytical conclusion, then introduce a chart to illustrate that conclusion. The inverse would be: Start with the chart, and use the chart to explain the analysis.

The visualizations are generally of good quality, emphasizing clarity over prettiness. The choice of sticking to one software, ggplot2 in R, without post-production, constrains the visual designer to the preferences of the software designer. Such limitations are evident in chart elements like legends and titles. Here is one example (Chapter 5, Figure 5.8):

By default, the software prints the names of data columns in the titles. Imagine if the plot titles were Changeup, Fastball and Slider instead of CU, FF and SL. Or that the axis labels were “horizontal location” and “vertical location” (check) instead of px and pz. [Note: The chart above was taken from the book's github site; in the  Figure 5.8 in the printed book, the chart titles were edited as suggested.]

The chart analyzes the location relative to the strike zone of pitches that were missed versus pitches that were hit (not missed). By default, the software takes the name of the binary variable (“Miss”) as the legend title, and lists the values of the variable (“True” and “False”) as the labels of the two colors. Imagine if True appeared as “Miss” and False as “Hit” .

Finally, the chart exhibits over-plotting, making it tough to know how many blue or gray dots are present. Smaller dot size might help, or else some form of aggregation.

***

Visualizing Baseball is not the book for readers who learn by running code as no code is included in the book. A github page by the author hosts the code, but only the R/ggplot2 code for generating the data visualization. Each script begins after the analysis or modeling has been completed. If you already know R and ggplot2, the github is worth a visit. In any case, I don’t recommend learning coding from copying and pasting clean code.

All in all, I can recommend this short book to any baseball enthusiast who’s beginning to look at baseball data. It may expand your appreciation of what can be done. For details, and practical implications, look elsewhere.

Clarifying comparisons in censored cohort data: UK housing affordability

If you're pondering over the following chart for five minutes or more, don't be ashamed. I took longer than that.

The chart accompanied a Financial Times article about inter-generational fairness in the U.K. To cut to the chase, a recently released study found that younger generations are spending substantially higher proportions of their incomes to pay for housing costs. The FT article is here (behind paywall). FT actually slightly modified the original chart, which I pulled from the Home Affront report by the Intergenerational Commission.

One stumbling block is to figure out what is plotted on the horizontal axis. The label "Age" has gone missing. Even though I am familiar with cohort analysis (here, generational analysis), it took effort to understand why the lines are not uniformly growing in lengths. Typically, the older generation is observed for a longer period of time, and thus should have a longer line.

In particular, the orange line, representing people born before 1895 only shows up for a five-year range, from ages 70 to 75. This was confusing because surely these people have lived through ages 20 to 70. I'm assuming the "left censoring" (missing data on the left side) is because of non-existence of old records.

The dataset is also right-censored (missing data on the right side). This occurs with the younger generations (the top three lines) because those cohorts have not yet reached certain ages. The interpretation is further complicated by the range of birth years in each cohort but let me not go there.

TL;DR ... each line represents a generation of Britons, defined by their birth years. The generations are compared by how much of their incomes did they spend on housing costs. The twist is that we control for age, meaning that we compare these generations at the same age (i.e. at each life stage).

***

Here is my version of the same chart:

Here are some of the key edits:

• Vertical blocks are introduced to break up the analysis by life stage. These guide readers to compare the lines vertically i.e. across generations
• The generations are explicitly described as cohorts by birth years
• The labels for the generations are placed next to the lines
• Gridlines are pushed to the back
• The age axis is explicitly labeled
• Age labels are thinned
• A hierarchy on colors
• The line segments with incomplete records are dimmed

The harmful effect of colors can be seen below. This chart is the same as the one above, except for retaining the colors of the original chart:

 

 

Clearing a forest of labels

This chart by the Financial Times has a strong message, and I like a lot about it:

The countries are by and large aligned along a diagonal, with the poorer countries growing strongly between 2007-2019 while the richer countries suffered negative growth.

A small issue with the chart is the thick forest of text - redundant text. The sub-title, the axis titles, the quadrant labels, and the left-right-half labels all repeat the same things. In the following chart, I simplify the text:

Typically, I don't put axis titles as a sub-header (or, header of the graphic) but as this may be part of the FT style, I respected it.

The unreasonable effect of chart labels

In discussing the bar-density and pie-density charts with a buddy (thanks LB!), it became obvious that the labeling is a challenge. And he's right.

Here is the pie-density chart for the Youtube views with the labels as originally conceived.

These labels are trying too hard to provide precise data to the reader.

Here are some simplified labels that get at the message rather than the data:

Here is a slightly different version: