Counting the Olympic medals

Reader Conor H. sent in this daily medals table at the NBC website:

Nbc_olympicmedals

He commented that the bars are not quite the right lengths. So even though China and Russia both won five total medals that day, the bar for China is slightly shorter.

One issue with the stacked bar chart is that the reader's attention is drawn to the components rather that the whole. However, as is this case, the most important statistic is the total number of medals.

Here is a different view of the data:

Redo_olympicmedalsdaily

 

 


Various ways of showing distributions

The other day, a chart about the age distribution of Olympic athletes caught my attention. I found the chart on Google but didn't bookmark it and now I couldn't retrieve it. From my mind's eye, the chart looks like this:

Age_olympics_stackedbars

This chart has the form of a stacked bar chart but it really isn't. The data embedded in each bar segment aren't proportions; rather, they are counts of athletes along a standardized age scale. For example, the very long bar segment on the right side of the bar for alpine skiing does not indicate a large proportion of athletes in that 30-50 age group; it's the opposite: that part of the distribution is sparse, with an outlier at age 50.

The easiest way to understand this chart is to transform it to histograms.

Redo_age_olympics_histo2

In a histogram, the counts for different age groups are encoded in the heights of the columns. Instead, encode the counts in a color scale so that taller columns map to darker shades of blue. Then, collapse the columns to the same heights. Each stacked bar chart is really a collapsed histogram.

***

The stacked bar chart reminds me of boxplots that are loved by statisticians.

Redo_age_olympics_boxplot2b

In a boxplot, the box contains the middle 50% of the athletes in each sport (this directly maps to the dark blue bar segments from the chart above). Outlier values are plotted individually, which gives a bit more information about the sparsity of certain bar segments, such as the right side of alpine skiing.

The stacked bar chart can be considered a nicer-looking version of the boxplot.

 

 


Super-informative ping-pong graphic

Via Twitter, Mike W. asked me to comment on this WSJ article about ping pong tables. According to the article, ping pong table sales track venture-capital deal flow:

Wsj_pingpongsales

This chart is super-informative. I learned a lot from this chart, including:

  • Very few VC-funded startups play ping pong, since the highlighted reference lines show 1000 deals and only 150 tables (!)
  • The one San Jose store interviewed for the article is the epicenter of ping-pong table sales, therefore they can use it as a proxy for all stores and all parts of the country
  • The San Jose store only does business with VC startups, which is why they attribute all ping-pong tables sold to these companies
  • Startups purchase ping-pong tables in the same quarter as their VC deals, which is why they focus only on within-quarter comparisons
  • Silicon Valley startups only source their office equipment from Silicon Valley retailers
  • VC deal flow has no seasonality
  • Ping-pong table sales has no seasonality either
  • It is possible to predict the past (VC deals made) by gathering data about the future (ping-pong tables sold)

Further, the chart proves that one can draw conclusions from a single observation. Here is what the same chart looks like after taking out the 2016 Q1 data point:

Redo_pingpongsales2

This revised chart is also quite informative. I learned:

  • At the same level of ping-pong-table sales (roughly 150 tables), the number of VC deals ranged from 920 to 1020, about one-third of the vertical range shown in the original chart
  • At the same level of VC deals (roughly 1000 deals), the number of ping-pong tables sold ranged from 150 to 230, about half of the horizontal range of the original chart

The many quotes in the WSJ article also tell us that people in Silicon Valley are no more data-driven than people in other parts of the country.


Football managers on the hot seat

Chris Y. asked how to read this BBC Sports graphic via Twitter:

Bbcsports_managers_winprecent

These are managers of British football (i.e. soccer) teams. Listed are some of the worst tenures of some managers. But what do the numbers mean?

The character "V" holds the key. When I first read the chart title, I wonder why managers are opposed to win percentages. Also, the legend at the bottom right confuses me. Did they mean "W" when they printed "V"? "Games W%" seems like a shorthand for winning percentage.

After looking up John Carver's not-so-impressive record, I learned that the left column are total number of matches managed and the right column is the winning percentage expressed as a number between 0 and 100.

I think even the designer got confused by those scales. Witness the little bar charts in the middle:

Bbcsports_managers_winpercent1

The two numbers are treated as if they are on the same scale. The left column is assumed to be the number of matches won while the right column is treated as the number of matches lost (or vice versa). Under this interpretation, the bar charts would depict the winning percentages. Let me fix the data:

Redo_bbcsport_managers

While these managers have compiled similar losing records on a relative basis, some of them lasted longer than others. The following chart brings out the difference in tenure while keeping the winning percentages: (I have re-sorted the managers.)

  Redo_bbcsports-managers-2

 When they finally got the sack, they reached the end of the line.


Bewildering baseball math

Over Twitter, someone asked me about this chart:

Mlb_pipeline

It's called the MLB pipeline. The text at the top helpfully tells us what the chart is about: how the playoff teams in baseball are built. That's the good part.

It then took me half a day to understand what is going on below. There are four ways for a player to be on a team: homegrown, trades and free agents, wherein homegrown includes drafted players or international players.

Each row is a type of player. You can look up which teams have exactly X players of a specific type. It gets harder if you want to know how many players team Y has of a given type. It is even harder if you don't know the logos of every team (e.g. Toronto Blue Jays).

Some fishy business is going on with the threesomes and foursomes. Here is the red threesome:

Mlb_threesome1

Didn't know baseball employs half a player. The green section has a different way to play threesomes:

Mlb_threesome2

The blue section takes inspiration from both and shows us a foursome:

Mlb_foursome

I was stuck literally in the middle for quite a while:

Mlb_middlesection

Eventually, I realized that this is a summary of the first two sections on the page. I still don't understand why there is no gap between 11 and 14 but then the 14 and 15 arrows are twice as large as 9, 10 and 11 even though every arrow contains exactly one team.

***

The biggest problem in the above chart is the hidden base: each team's roster has a total of 25 players.

Here is a different view of the data:

Redo_mlb_pipeline

With this chart, I want to emphasize two points: first, addressing the most interesting question of which team(s) emphasize which particular player acquisition tactic; second, providing the proper reference level to interpret the data.

Regarding the vertical, reference lines: take the top left chart about players arriving through trade. If every team equally emphasizes this tactic, then each team should have the same number of traded players on the 25-person roster. This would mean every team has approximately 11 traded players. This is clearly not the case. Several teams, especially Cubs and Blue Jays, utilized trades more often than teams like Mets and Royals.

 

 


Don't pick your tool before having your design

My talk at Parsons seemed like a success, based on the conversation it generated, and the fact that people stuck around till the end. One of my talking points is that one should not pick a tool before having a design.

Then, last night on Twitter, I found an example to illustrate this. Jim Fonseca tweeted about this chart from Business Insider: (link)

BI_nflpenaltycount01

The style is clean and crisp, which I credit them for. Jim was not happy about the length of the columns. It seems that no matter how many times we repeat the start-at-zero rule, people continue to ignore it.

So here we go again. The 2015 column is about double the height of the 2013 column but 730 is nowhere near double the value of 617.

The standard remedy for this is to switch to a line chart, or a dot plot. Something like this can be quickly produced in any software:

Redo_binflpenaltywk3_2

Is this the best we can do?

Not if we are willing to free ourselves from the tool. Think about the message: NFL referees have been calling more penalties this year. Compared to what?

I want to leave readers no doubt as to what my message is. So I sketched this version:

Redo_binflpenaltywk3

This version cannot be produced directly from a tool (without contorting your body in various painful locations).

The lesson is: Make your design, then find a way to execute it.


Reimagining the league table

The reason for the infrequent posting is my travel schedule. I spent the past week in Seattle at JSM. This is an annual meeting of statisticians. I presented some work on fantasy football data that I started while writing Numbersense.

For my talk, I wanted to present the ubiquitous league table in a more useful way. The league table is a table of results and relevant statistics, at the team level, in a given sports league, usually ordered by the current winning percentage. Here is an example of ESPN's presentation of the NFL end-of-season league table from 2014.

Espn_league_table_nfl_2014

If you want to know weekly results, you have to scroll to each team's section, and look at this format:

Espn_cowboys_2014_team

For the graph that I envisioned for the talk,  I wanted to show the correlation between Points Scored and winning/losing. Needless to say, the existing format is not satisfactory. This format is especially poor if I want my readers to be able to compare across teams.

***

The graph that I ended up using is this one:

  All_teams_season_winloss_vs_points

 The teams are sorted by winning percentage. One thing should be pretty clear... the raw Points Scored are only weakly associated with winning percentage. Especially in the middle of the Points distribution, other factors are at play determining if the team wins or loses.

The overlapping dots present a bit of a challenge. I went through a few other drafts before settling on this.

The same chart but with colored dots, and a legend:

Jc_dots_two_layers

Only one line of dots per team instead of two, and also requiring a legend:

Jc_dots_one_line

 Jittering is a popular solution to separating co-located dots but the effect isn't very pleasing to my eye:

Jc_dots_oneline_jittered

Small multiples is another frequently prescribed solution. Here I separated the Wins and Losses in side-by-side panels. The legend can be removed.

Jc_dots_two_panels

 

As usual, sketching is one of the most important skills in data visualization; and you'd want to have a tool that makes sketching painless and quick.


I try hard to not hate all hover-overs. Here is one I love

One of the smart things Noah (at WNYC) showed to my class was his NFL fan map, based on Facebook data.

This is the "home" of the visualization:

Veltman_nfl_home

The fun starts by clicking around. Here are the Green Bay fans on Facebook:

Veltman_nfl_greenbay

Also, you can see these fans relative to other teams in the same division:

Veltman_nfl_afcnorth

A team like Jacksonville has a tiny footprint:

Veltman_nfl_jags

 

What makes this visualization work?

Notice the "home" image and those straight black lines. They are the "natural" regions of influence, if you assume that all fans root for the team that they are physcially closest to. 

To appreciate this, you have to look at a more generic NFL fan map (this is one from Deadspin):

Deadspin_nfl_fans

This map is informative but not as informative as it ought to be. The reference point provided here are the state boundaries but we don't have one NFL team per state. Those "Voronoi" boundaries Noah added are more reasonable reference points to compare to the Facebook fan data.

When looking at the fan map, the most important question you have is what is each team's region of influence. This work reminds me of what I wrote before about the Beer Map (link). Putting all beer labels (or NFL teams) onto the same map makes it hard to get quick answers to that question. A small-multiples presentation is more direct, as the reader can see the brands/teams one at a time.

Here, Noah makes use of interactivity to present these small multiples on the same surface. It's harder to compare multiple teams but that is a secondary question. He does have two additions in case readers want to compare multiple teams. If you click instead of mousing over a team, the team's area of influence sticks around. Also, he created tabs so you can compare teams within each division.

I usually hate hover-over effects. They often hide things that readers want (creating what Noah calls "scavenger hunts"). The hover-over effect is used masterfully here to organize the reader's consumption of the data.

***

Moving to the D corner of the Trifecta checkup. Here is Noah's comment on the data:

Facebook likes are far from a perfect method for measuring NFL fandom. In sparsely-populated areas of the country, counties are likely to have a very small sample size. People who like things on Facebook are also not a perfect cross-section of football fans (they probably skew younger, for example). Other data sources that could be used as proxies for fan interest (but are subject to their own biases) are things like: home game attendance, merchandise sales, TV ratings, or volume of tweets about a team.
 
 

 


An infographic showing up here for the right reason

Infographics do not have to be "data ornaments" (link). Once in a blue moon, someone finds the right balance of pictures and data. Here is a nice example from the Wall Street Journal, via ThumbsUpViz.

 

Thumbsupviz_wsj_footballinjuries

 

Link to the image

 

What makes this work is that the picture of the running back serves a purpose here, in organizing the data.  Contrast this to the airplane from Consumer Reports (link), which did a poor job of providing structure. An alternative of using a bar chart is clearly inferior and much less engaging.

Redowsjinjuries_bar

***

I went ahead and experimented with it:

Redo_wsj_nflinjuries

 

I fixed the self-sufficiency issue, always present when using bubble charts. In this case, I don't think it matters whether the readers know the exact number of injuries so I removed all of the data from the chart.

Here are  three temptations that I did not implement:

  • Not include the legend
  • Not include the text labels, which are rendered redundant by the brilliant idea of using the running guy
  • Hide the bar charts behind a mouseover effect.

 


Revisiting the home run data

Note to New York metro readers: I'm an invited speaker at NYU's "Art and Science of Brand Storytelling" summer course which starts tomorrow. I will be speaking on Thursday, 12-1 pm. You can still register here.

***

The home run data set, compiled by ESPN and visualized by Mode Analytics, is pretty rich. I took a quick look at one aspect of the data. The question I ask is what differences exist among the 10 hitters that are highlighted in the previous visualization. (I am not quite sure how those 10 were picked because they are not the Top 10 home run hitters in the dataset for the current season.)

The following chart focuses on two metrics: the total number of home runs by this point in the season; and the "true" distances of those home runs. I split the data by whether the home run was hit on a home field or an away stadium, on the hunch that we'd need to correct for such differences.

Jc_top10hitters_homeaway_splits

The hitters are sorted by total number of home runs. Because I am using a single season, my chart doesn't suffer from a cohort bias. If you go back to the original visualization, it is clear that some of these hitters are veterans with many seasons of baseball in them while others are newbies. This cohort bias explains the difference in dot densities of those plots.

Having not been following baseball recently, I don't know many of these names on the list. I have to look up Todd Frazier - does he play in a hitter-friendly ballpark? His home to away ratio is massive. Frazier plays for Cincinnati, at the Great American Ballpark. That ballpark has the third highest number of home runs hit of all ballparks this season although up till now, opponents have hit more home runs there than home players. For reference, Troy Tulowitzki's home field is Colorado's Coors Field, which is hitter's paradise. Giancarlo Stanton, who also hits quite a few more home runs at home, plays for Miami at Marlins Park, which is below the median in terms of home run production; thus his achievement is probably the most impressive amongst those three.

Josh Donaldson is the odd man out, as he has hit more away home runs than home runs at home. His O.co Coliseum is middle-of-the-road in terms of home runs.

In terms of how far the home runs travel (bottom part of the chart), there are some interesting tidbits. Brian Dozier's home runs are generally the shortest, regardless of home or away. Yasiel Puig and Giancarlo Stanton generate deep home runs. Adam Jones Josh Donaldson, and Yoenis Cespedes have hit the ball quite a bit deeper away from home.  Giancarlo Stanton is one of the few who has hit the home-run ball deeper at his home stadium.

The baseball season is still young, and the sample sizes at the individual hitter's level are small (~15-30 total), thus the observed differences at the home/away level are mostly statistically insignificant.

The prior post on the original graphic can be found here.