Designs of two variables: map, dot plot, line chart, table

The New York Times found evidence that the richest segments of New Yorkers, presumably those with second or multiple homes, have exited the Big Apple during the early months of the pandemic. The article (link) is amply assisted by a variety of data graphics.

The first few charts represent different attempts to express the headline message. Their appearance in the same article allows us to assess the relative merits of different chart forms.

First up is the always-popular map.

Nytimes_newyorkersleft_overallmap

The advantage of a map is its ease of comprehension. We can immediately see which neighborhoods experienced the greater exoduses. Clearly, Manhattan has cleared out a lot more than outer boroughs.

The limitation of the map is also in view. With the color gradient dedicated to the proportions of residents gone on May 1st, there isn't room to express which neighborhoods are richer. We have to rely on outside knowledge to make the correlation ourselves.

The second attempt is a dot plot.

Nytimes_newyorksleft_percentathome

We may have to take a moment to digest the horizontal axis. It's not time moving left to right but income percentiles. The poorest neighborhoods are to the left and the richest to the right. I'm assuming that these percentiles describe the distribution of median incomes in neighborhoods. Typically, when we see income percentiles, they are based on households, regardless of neighborhoods. (The former are equal-sized segments, unlike the latter.)

This data graphic has the reverse features of the map. It does a great job correlating the drop in proportion of residents at home with the income distribution but it does not convey any spatial information. The message is clear: The residents in the top 10% of New York neighborhoods are much more likely to have left town.

In the following chart, I attempted a different labeling of both axes. It cuts out the need for readers to reverse being home to not being home, and 90th percentile to top 10%.

Redo_nyt_newyorkerslefttown

The third attempt to convey the income--exit relationship is the most successful in my mind. This is a line chart, with time on the horizontal axis.

Nyt_newyorkersleft_percenthomebyincome

The addition of lines relegates the dots to the background. The lines show the trend more clearly. If directly translated from the dot plot, this line chart should have 100 lines, one for each percentile. However, the closeness of the top two lines suggests that no meaningful difference in behavior exists between the 20th and 80th percentiles. This can be conveyed to readers through a short note. Instead of displaying all 100 percentiles, the line chart selectively includes only the 99th , 95th, 90th, 80th and 20th percentiles. This is a design choice that adds by subtraction.

Along the time axis, the line chart provides more granularity than either the map or the dot plot. The exit occurred roughly over the last two weeks of March and the first week of April. The start coincided with New York's stay-at-home advisory.

This third chart is a statistical graphic. It does not bring out the raw data but features aggregated and smoothed data designed to reveal a key message.

I encourage you to also study the annotated table later in the article. It shows the power of a well-designed table.

[P.S. 6/4/2020. On the book blog, I have just published a post about the underlying surveillance data for this type of analysis.]

 

 


How to read this chart about coronavirus risk

In my just-published Long Read article at DataJournalism.com, I touched upon the subject of "How to Read this Chart".

Most data graphics do not come with directions of use because dataviz designers follow certain conventions. We do not need to tell you, for example, that time runs left to right on the horizontal axis (substitute right to left for those living in right-to-left countries). It's when we deviate from the norms that calls for a "How to Read this Chart" box.

***
A discussion over Twitter during the weekend on the following New York Times chart perfectly illustrates this issue. (The article is well worth reading to educate oneself on this red-hot public-health issue. I made some comments on the sister blog about the data a few days ago.)

Nyt_coronavirus_scatter

Reading this chart, I quickly grasp that the horizontal axis is the speed of infection and the vertical axis represents the deadliness. Without being told, I used the axis labels (and some of you might notice the annotations with the arrows on the top right.) But most people will likely miss - at a glance - that the vertical axis utilizes a log scale while the horizontal axis is linear (regular).

The effect of a log scale is to pull the large numbers toward the average while spreading the smaller numbers apart - when compared to a linear scale. So when we look at the top of the coronavirus box, it appears that this virus could be as deadly as SARS.

The height of the pink box is 3.9, while the gap between the top edge of the box and the SARS dot is 6. Yet our eyes tell us the top edge is closer to the SARS dot than it is to the bottom edge!

There is nothing inaccurate about this chart - the log scale introduces such distortion. The designer has to make a choice.

Indeed, there were two camps on Twitter, arguing for and against the log scale.

***

I use log scales a lot in analyzing data, but tend not to use log scales in a graph. It's almost a given that using the log scale requires a "How to Read this Chart" message. And the NY Times crew delivers!

Right below the chart is a paragraph:

Nyt_coronavirus_howtoreadthis

To make this even more interesting, the horizontal axis is a hidden "log" scale. That's because infections spread exponentially. Even though the scale is not labeled "log", think as if the large values have been pulled toward the middle.

Here is an over-simplified way to see this. A disease that spreads at a rate of fifteen people at a time is not 3 times worse than one that spreads five at a time. In the former case, the first sick person transmits it to 15, and then each of the 15 transmits the flu to 15 others, thus after two steps, 241 people have been infected (225 + 15 + 1). In latter case, it's 5x5 + 5 + 1 = 31 infections after two steps. So at this point, the number of infected is already 8 times worse, not 3 times. And the gap keeps widening with each step.

P.S. See also my post on the sister blog that digs deeper into the metrics.

 


All these charts lament the high prices charged by U.S. hospitals

Nyt_medicalprocedureprices

A former student asked me about this chart from the New York Times that highlights much higher prices of hospital procedures in the U.S. relative to a comparison group of seven countries.

The dot plot is clearly thought through. It is not a default chart that pops out of software.

Based on its design, we surmise that the designer has the following intentions:

  1. The names of the medical procedures are printed to be read, thus the long text is placed horizontally.

  2. The actual price is not as important as the relative price, expressed as an index with the U.S. price at 100%. These reference values are printed in glaring red, unignorable.

  3. Notwithstanding the above point, the actual price is still of secondary importance, and the values are provided as a supplement to the row labels. Getting to the actual prices in the comparison countries requires further effort, and a calculator.

  4. The primary comparison is between the U.S. and the rest of the world (or the group of seven countries included). It is less important to distinguish specific countries in the comparison group, and thus the non-U.S. dots are given pastels that take some effort to differentiate.

  5. Probably due to reader feedback, the font size is subject to a minimum so that some labels are split into two lines to prevent the text from dominating the plotting region.

***

In the Trifecta Checkup view of the world, there is no single best design. The best design depends on the intended message and what’s in the available data.

To illustate this, I will present a few variants of the above design, and discuss how these alternative designs reflect the designer's intentions.

Note that in all my charts, I expressed the relative price in terms of discounts, which is the mirror image of premiums. Instead of saying Country A's price is 80% of the U.S. price, I prefer to say Country A's price is a 20% saving (or discount) off the U.S. price.

First up is the following chart that emphasizes countries instead of hospital procedures:

Redo_medicalprice_hor_dot

This chart encourages readers to draw conclusions such as "Hospital prices are 60-80 percent cheaper in Holland relative to the U.S." But it is more taxing to compare the cost of a specific procedure across countries.

The indexing strategy already creates a barrier to understanding relative costs of a specific procedure. For example, the value for angioplasty in Australia is about 55% and in Switzerland, about 75%. The difference 75%-55% is meaningless because both numbers are relative savings from the U.S. baseline. Comparing Australia and Switzerland requires a ratio (0.75/0.55 = 1.36): Australia's prices are 36% above Swiss prices, or alternatively, Swiss prices are a 64% 26% discount off Australia's prices.

The following design takes it even further, excluding details of individual procedures:

Redo_medicalprice_hor_bar

For some readers, less is more. It’s even easier to get a rough estimate of how much cheaper prices are in the comparison countries, for now, except for two “outliers”, the chart does not display individual values.

The widths of these bars reveal that in some countries, the amount of savings depends on the specific procedures.

The bar design releases the designer from a horizontal orientation. The country labels are shorter and can be placed at the bottom in a vertical design:

Redo_medicalprice_vert_bar

It's not that one design is obviously superior to the others. Each version does some things better. A good designer recognizes the strengths and weaknesses of each design, and selects one to fulfil his/her intentions.

 

P.S. [1/3/20] Corrected a computation, explained in Ken's comment.


Where are the Democratic donors?

I like Alberto's discussion of the attractive maps about donors to Democratic presidential candidates, produced by the New York Times (direct link).

Here is the headline map:

Nyt_demdonormaps

The message is clear: Bernie Sanders is the only candidate with nation-wide appeal. The breadth of his coverage is breath-taking. (I agree with Alberto's critique about the lack of a color scale. It's impossible to know if the counts are trivial or not.)

Bernie's coverage is so broad that his numbers overwhelm those of all other candidates except in their home bases (e.g. O'Rourke in Texas).

A remedy to this is to look at the data after removing Bernie's numbers.

Nyt_demdonormap_2

 

This pair of maps reminds me of the Sri Lanka religions map that I revisualized in this post.

Redo_srilankareligiondistricts_v2

The first two maps divide the districts into those in which one religion dominates and those in which multiple religions share the limelight. The third map then shows the second-rank religion in the mixed-religions districts.

The second map in the NYT's donor map series plots the second-rank candidate in all the precincts that Bernie Sanders lead. It's like the designer pulled off the top layer (blue: Bernie) to reveal what's underneath.

Because all of Bernie's data are removed, O'Rourke is still dominating Texas, Buttigieg in Indiana, etc. An alternative is to pull off the top layer in those pockets as well. Then, it's likely to see Bernie showing up in those areas.

The other startling observation is how small Joe Biden's presence is on these maps. This is likely because Biden relies primarily on big donors.

See here for the entire series of donor maps. See here for past discussion of New York Times's graphics.


Powerful photos visualizing housing conditions in Hong Kong

I was going to react to Alberto's post about the New York Times's article about economic inequality in Hong Kong, which is proposed as one origin to explain the current protest movement. I agree that the best graphic in this set is the "photoviz" showing the "coffins" or "cages" that many residents live in, because of the population density. 

Nyt_hongkong_apartment_photoviz

Then I searched the archives, and found this old post from 2015 which is the perfect response to it. What's even better, that post was also inspired by Alberto.

The older post featured a wonderful campaign by human rights organization Society for Community Organization that uses photoviz to draw attention to the problem of housing conditions in Hong Kong. They organized a photography exhibit on this theme in 2014. They then updated the exhibit in 2016.

Here is one of the iconic photos by Benny Lam:

Soco_trapped_B1

I found more coverage of Benny's work here. There is also a book that we can flip on Vimeo.

In 2017, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) published drone footage showing the outside view of the apartment buildings.

***

What's missing is the visual comparison to the luxury condos where the top 1 percent live. For these, one can  visit the real estate sites, such as Sotheby's. Here is their "12 luxury homes for sales" page.

Another comparison: a 1000 sq feet apartment that sits between those extremes. The photo by John Butlin comes from SCMP's Post Magazine's feature on the apartment:

Butlin_scmp_home

***

Also check out my review of Alberto's fantastic, recent book, How Charts Lie.

Cairo_howchartslie_cover

 

 


Say it thrice: a nice example of layering and story-telling

I enjoyed the New York Times's data viz showing how actively the Democratic candidates were criss-crossing the nation in the month of March (link).

It is a great example of layering the presentation, starting with an eye-catching map at the most aggregate level. The designers looped through the same dataset three times.

Nyt_candidatemap_1

This compact display packs quite a lot. We can easily identify which were the most popular states; and which candidate visited which states the most.

I noticed how they handled the legend. There is no explicit legend. The candidate names are spread around the map. The size legend is also missing, replaced by a short sentence explaining that size encodes the number of cities visited within the state. For a chart like this, having a precise size legend isn't that useful.

The next section presents the same data in a small-multiples layout. The heads are replaced by dots.

Nyt_candidatemap_2

This allows more precise comparison of one candidate to another, and one location to another.

This display has one shortcoming. If you compare the left two maps above, those for Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke, it looks like they have visited roughly similar number of cities when in fact Beto went to 42 compared to 25. Reducing the size of the dots might work.

Then, in the third visualization of the same data, the time dimension is emphasized. Lines are used to animate the daily movements of the candidates, one by one.

Nyt_candidatemap_3

Click here to see the animation.

When repetition is done right, it doesn't feel like repetition.

 


Quick example of layering

The New York Times uses layering to place the Alabama tornadoes in context. (link)

Today's wide availability of detailed data allows designers to create dense data graphics like this:

Nyt_alabamatornado_3

The graphic shows the starting and ending locations and trajectory of each tornado, as well as the wind speeds (shown in color).

Too much data slows down our understanding of the visual message. The remedy is to subtract. Here is a second graphic that focuses only on the strongest tornadoes (graded 4 or 5 on a 5-point scale):

Nyt_alabamatornado_2

Another goal of the data visualization is to place in context the tornado that hit Beauregard:

Nyt_alabamatornado_1

The area around Beauregard is not typically visited by strong tornadoes. Also, the tornadoes were strong but there have been stronger ones.

***

The designer unfolds the story in three stages. There are no knobs and sliders and arrows, and that's a beauty. It's usually not a good idea to make readers find the story themselves.


NYT hits the trifecta with this market correction chart

Yesterday, in the front page of the Business section, the New York Times published a pair of charts that perfectly captures the story of the ongoing turbulence in the stock market.

Here is the first chart:

Nyt_marketcorrection_1

Most market observers are very concerned about the S&P entering "correction" territory, which the industry arbitrarily defines as a drop of 10% or more from a peak. This corresponds to the shortest line on the above chart.

The chart promotes a longer-term reflection on the recent turbulence, using two reference points: the index has returned to the level even with that at the start of 2018, and about 16 percent higher since the beginning of 2017.

This is all done tastefully in a clear, understandable graphic.

Then, in a bit of a rhetorical flourish, the bottom of the page makes another point:

Myt_marketcorrection2

When viewed back to a 10-year period, this chart shows that the S&P has exploded by 300% since 2009.

A connection is made between the two charts via the color of the lines, plus the simple, effective annotation "Chart above".

The second chart adds even more context, through vertical bands indicating previous corrections (drops of at least 10%). These moments are connected to the first graphic via the beige color. The extra material conveys the message that the market has survived multiple corrections during this long bull period.

Together, the pair of charts addresses a pressing current issue, and presents a direct, insightful answer in a simple, effective visual design, so it hits the Trifecta!

***

There are a couple of interesting challenges related to connecting plots within a multiple-plot framework.

While the beige color connects the concept of "market correction" in the top and bottom charts, it can also be a source of confusion. The orientation and the visual interpretation of those bands differ. The first chart uses one horizontal band while the chart below shows multiple vertical bands. In the first chart, the horizontal band refers to a definition of correction while in the second chart, the vertical bands indicate experienced corrections.

Is there a solution in which the bands have the same orientation and same meaning?

***

These graphs solve a visual problem concerning the visualization of growth over time. Growth rates are anchored to some starting time. A ten-percent reduction means nothing unless you are told ten-percent of what.

Using different starting times as reference points, one gets different values of growth rates. With highly variable series of data like stock prices, picking starting times even a day apart can lead to vastly different growth rates.

The designer here picked several obvious reference times, and superimposes multiple lines on the same plotting canvass. Instead of having four lines on one chart, we have three lines on one, and four lines on the other. This limits the number of messages per chart, which speeds up cognition.

The first chart depicts this visual challenge well. Look at the start of 2018. This second line appears as if you can just reset the start point to 0, and drag the remaining portion of the line down. The part of the top line (to the right of Jan 2018) looks just like the second line that starts at Jan 2018.

Jc_marketcorrection1

However, a closer look reveals that the shape may be the same but the magnitude isn't. There is a subtle re-scaling in addition to the re-set to zero.

The same thing happens at the starting moment of the third line. You can't just drag the portion of the first or second line down - there is also a needed re-scaling.


Crazy rich Asians inspire some rich graphics

On the occasion of the hit movie Crazy Rich Asians, the New York Times did a very nice report on Asian immigration in the U.S.

The first two graphics will be of great interest to those who have attended my free dataviz seminar (coming to Lyon, France in October, by the way. Register here.), as it deals with a related issue.

The first chart shows an income gap widening between 1970 and 2016.

Nyt_crazyrichasians_incomegap1

This uses a two-lines design in a small-multiples setting. The distance between the two lines is labeled the "income gap". The clear story here is that the income gap is widening over time across the board, but especially rapidly among Asians, and then followed by whites.

The second graphic is a bumps chart (slopegraph) that compares the endpoints of 1970 and 2016, but using an "income ratio" metric, that is to say, the ratio of the 90th-percentile income to the 10th-percentile income.

Nyt_crazyrichasians_incomeratio2

Asians are still a key story on this chart, as income inequality has ballooned from 6.1 to 10.7. That is where the similarity ends.

Notice how whites now appears at the bottom of the list while blacks shows up as the second "worse" in terms of income inequality. Even though the underlying data are the same, what can be seen in the Bumps chart is hidden in the two-lines design!

In short, the reason is that the scale of the two-lines design is such that the small numbers are squashed. The bottom 10 percent did see an increase in income over time but because those increases pale in comparison to the large incomes, they do not show up.

What else do not show up in the two-lines design? Notice that in 1970, the income ratio for blacks was 9.1, way above other racial groups.

Kudos to the NYT team to realize that the two-lines design provides an incomplete, potentially misleading picture.

***

The third chart in the series is a marvellous scatter plot (with one small snafu, which I'd get t0).

Nyt_crazyrichasians_byethnicity

What are all the things one can learn from this chart?

  • There is, as expected, a strong correlation between having college degrees and earning higher salaries.
  • The Asian immigrant population is diverse, from the perspectives of both education attainment and median household income.
  • The largest source countries are China, India and the Philippines, followed by Korea and Vietnam.
  • The Indian immigrants are on average professionals with college degrees and high salaries, and form an outlier group among the subgroups.

Through careful design decisions, those points are clearly conveyed.

Here's the snafu. The designer forgot to say which year is being depicted. I suspect it is 2016.

Dating the data is very important here because of the following excerpt from the article:

Asian immigrants make up a less monolithic group than they once did. In 1970, Asian immigrants came mostly from East Asia, but South Asian immigrants are fueling the growth that makes Asian-Americans the fastest-expanding group in the country.

This means that a key driver of the rapid increase in income inequality among Asian-Americans is the shift in composition of the ethnicities. More and more South Asian (most of whom are Indians) arrivals push up the education attainment and household income of the average Asian-American. Not only are Indians becoming more numerous, but they are also richer.

An alternative design is to show two bubbles per ethnicity (one for 1970, one for 2016). To reduce clutter, the smaller ethnicites can be aggregated into Other or South Asian Other. This chart may help explain the driver behind the jump in income inequality.

 

 

 

 

 


Visualizing the Thai cave rescue operation

The Thai cave rescue was a great story with a happy ending. It's also one that lends itself to visualization. A good visualization can explain the rescue operation more efficiently than mere words.

A good visual should bring out the most salient features of the story, such as:

  • Why the operation was so daunting?
  • What were the tactics used to overcome those challenges?
  • How long did it take?
  • What were the specific local challenges that must be overcome?
  • Were there any surprises?

In terms of what made the rescue challenging, some of the following are pertinent:

  • How far in they were?
  • How deep were they trapped?
  • How much of the caves were flooded? Why couldn't they come out by themselves?
  • How much headroom was there in different sections of the cave "tunnel"?

There were many attempts at visualizing the Thai cave rescue operation. The best ones I saw were: BBC (here, here), The New York Times (here), South China Morning Post (here) and Straits Times (here). It turns out each of these efforts focuses on some of the aspects above, and you have to look at all of them to get the full picture.

***

BBC's coverage began with a top-down view of the route of the rescue, which seems to be the most popular view adopted by news organizations. This is easily understood because of the standard map aesthetic.

Bbc_102494059_caves_976

The BBC map is missing a smaller map of Thailand to place this in a geographical context.

While this map provides basic information, it doesn't address many of the elements that make the Thai cave rescue story compelling. In particular, human beings are missing from this visualization. The focus is on the actions ("diving", "standing"). This perspective also does not address the water level, the key underlying environmental factor.

***

Another popular perspective is the sideway cross-section. The Straits Times has one:

Straittimes_thai rescue_part

The excerpt of the infographic presents a nice collection of data that show the effort of the rescue. The sideway cross-sectional section shows the distance and the up-and-down nature of the journey, the level of flooding along the route, plus a bit about the headroom available at different points. Most of these diagrams bring out the "horizontal" distance but somehow ignore the "vertical" distance. One possibility is that the real trajectory is curvy - but if we can straighten out the horizontal, we should be able to straighten out the vertical too.

The NYT article gives a more detailed view of the same perspective, with annotations that describe key moments along the rescue route.

Nyt_detailed_thairescueroute

If, like me, you like to place humans into this picture, then you have to go back to the Straits Times, where they have an expanded version of the sideway cross-section.

  Straitstimes_riskyroute_thairescue

This is probably my most favorite single visualization of the rescue operation.

There are better cartoons of the specific diving actions, though. For example, the BBC has this visual that shows the particularly narrow part of the route, corresponding to the circular inset in the Straits Times version above.

Bbc_thairescue_tightspace

The drama!

NYT also has a set of cartoons. Here's one:

Nyt_thairescue_divers

***

There is one perspective that curiously has been underserved in all of the visualizations - this is the first-person perspective. Imagine the rescuer (or the kids) navigating the rescue route. It's a cross-section from the front, not from the side.

Various publications try to address this by augmenting the top-down route view with sporadic cross-sectional diagrams. Recall the first map we showed from the BBC. On the right column are little annotations of this type (here):

Bbc_thaicaverescue_crosssection

I picked out this part of the map because it shows that the little human figure serves two potentially conflicting purposes. In the bottom diagram, the figurine shows that there is limited headroom in this part of the cave, plus the actual position of the figurine on the ledge conveys information about where the kids were. However, on the top cross-section, the location of the figure conveys no information; the only purpose of the human figure is to show how tall the cave is at that site.

The South China Morning Post (here - site appears to be down when I wrote this) has this wonderful animation of how the shape of the headroom changed as they navigated the route. Please visit their page to see the full animation. Here are two screenshots:

Scmp_caveshape_1

Scmp_caveshape_2

This little clip adds a lot to the story! It'd be even better if the horizontal timeline at the bottom is replaced by the top-down route map.

Thank you all the various dataviz teams for these great efforts.