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The link to "Emergence is now a science" is broken. Care to share the right one?


This one:


gah, except that didn't work. let's try again: link


The link is fixed now. Thanks for the note.


Thinking about a solution to the percentage problem: Instead of focussing on states-as-whole, why not look at the chance of switching party for each congressperson, using, perhaps, some form of ordinal logistic regreesion, possibly within a mixed model?

Could rank the possible changes:
Switch to D
Stay same
Switch to R

then, the IVs could be at both state level and district level (and maybe national level, too).


Kaiser, as you are aware these are not emergent patterns but scientist-produced patterns occurring from data manipulation. They should not be called “emergent”. An emergent pattern is not produced by the scientist; it is only seen by the scientist. In the case of emergence the underlying elements produce the pattern through relation. The relation of the elements to each other give access to a new and emergent layer of meaning and new properties which were not seen by inspection of the isolated elements. The emergent phenomenon is biased or leads to false conclusions when inclusion/exclusion of the elements that belong to an entity is not clearly defined.


The reference to the Emergence book was definitely tongue-in-cheek. However, I do think one of the challenges of that field is to ascertain that observed patterns are not of random origin.

This theme in fact arises again and again. Classical statisticians are very familiar with it through the multiple comparisons issue in analysis of experiments. In machine learning, and in particular the area known as "association rules", the biggest challenge is how to declassify correlations that just happen to show up in your sample.

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Kaiser Fung. Business analytics and data visualization expert. Author and Speaker.
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