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Ken

I enjoyed Freakonomics but also found some of the analyses a bit worrying. Given that I think economists don't understand some things about economies then it is unlikely that they have corrected properly in any longitudinal analysis. It is interesting that there is another theory about reduced levels of violent crime being due to changes to abortion laws and that is it is due to reduced lead. Both have their problems as there is so much confounding with socio-economic status.

21st century economics seems to be able to model everything except economies. I'm waiting for GFC 2 where economists will have to find another reason why they didn't predict it.

CfE

Kaiser,

I like your post but think you have used "generalizable" where "replicable" would be better.

Correct me if I'm wrong. My sense of these things is that a replicable experiment is one where, taking then same population, the same effect will be found, with perhaps minor differences because the samples from the population will not be identical.

Generalizability raises the question of whether a same/similar effect will be found in another population. Case in point: effects observed in small samples of psychology students might not be generalizable to a wider, more diverse, perhaps less self-selected a population.

An experiment that is replicable in a not very interesting population is not very interesting. A generalizable one crosses age/gender/personality/geography etc to be a genuinely useful insight.

Kaiser

CfE: You raise a point that probably merits a different post. Because the current controversy isn't about sampling bias, I have stayed away from that subject. Replicability is necessary but not sufficient for generalizablity. In the framework for p-values, we assume that the sample is representative of the population to which one wants to generalize the result. In reality, you're opening a can of worms here: I think another huge concern with any of these social science experiments is the reliance on samples of students when conclusions are drawn on the population.

That said, I don't see why the replication movement can't extend beyond repeating the original experiment. Seems like applying the same experimental design on a different sample (such as not students) is a worthwhile undertaking as well.

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