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John

Calling Germany a lesser opponent is a bit of a stretch. Team playing style and tactics change depending on the opponents own playing styles, and have a big influence on outcomes. Spain may in fact beat Italy easily, yet would have had a hard time playing against the germans...

Antonio

I agree with John, but I agree also with Kaiser. By the way, I note that Spain and Italy are finalist because they both have win a 50:50 penalty-lottery (Spain with Portugal Spain, and Italy with England), as you Kaiser have said some time ago. On the other hand, at the time of group stage it did appear more profitable to eliminate Italy than Croatia. As Machiavelli teaches, if you want to win, you have to forget fair play.

Kaiser

John: Spain and Italy have already matched up once in this tournament and it was a draw so it is a big stretch to say Spain can beat Italy easily. Given that Germany lost to Italy quite handily, at least in this tournament, Italy is the stronger opponent. We should carry on this debate on a football blog!

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Kaiser Fung is a professional statistician with expertise in marketing and advertising analytics. See full bio.

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