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Floormaster Squeeze

I am not sure I understand your comment about the Madsen work. It is possible his work has problems (I have only looked at the article) but I am not sure how the Barnett work is related. Did Barnett specifically look at the specific statistical relation Madsen investigated and see no relationship? Did Barnett even look at profitability as a possible predictor (I do not know so he may have)?

It seems to me that Madsen looked at relationship that many investigators might miss (a non-linear relationship).

My point is that to investigate something and conclude that the effect is "random" does not preclude further (better?) specified hypotheses from being "non-random".

Kaiser

Floormaster: Good point. I'm speaking from the perspective of someone who is convinced by Barnett's studies (which has been ongoing for over 30 years). Given that "model", any discovery of an "effect" is likely to be spurious. If one doesn't believe that model, then it is possible to find effects. Maybe a Bayesian model with a noninformative prior can be used here. I'm also worried by trying to look for complex relationships when there is so little signal (fatalities/accidents).

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